Indigenous people’s mobility and its impact on remote infrastructural needs:

Table of Contents

• Figure 1: Overview of research 17
• Figure 2: Rates of overcrowding for Indigenous people by jurisdiction and remoteness area, 2018—19 21
• Figure 3: Proportion of overcrowded Indigenous households with major structural problems by remoteness, 2018—19 22
• Figure 4: Discrete Indigenous communities by size and remoteness, 2011 26
• Figure 5: Indigenous population distribution by state and territory by remoteness, 2021 (%) 27
• Figure 6: Proportions of Indigenous people away from home on Census night 2006 and 2011 in 15 Northern Territory communities 29
• Figure 7: 2016 Indigenous populations by ILOC, age (five-year groups) and gender: actual versus predicted 38
• Figure 8: Model performance – within sample fit, based on 2011—16 and 2016—21 data 40
• Figure 9: Model fit: 2021 actual versus predicted population aggregated at the ILOC level 41
• Figure 10: Indigenous population by five-year age groups and remoteness: 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 42
• Figure 11: Population growth in outer regional, remote, and very remote Australia, by broad age group 45
• Figure 12: Trend in Indigenous population aged over 50 and over 65 years, by remoteness 48
• Figure 13: Trend in share of Indigenous population aged over 50 and over 65 years, by remoteness 49
• Table 1: Indigenous population by remoteness: 2006 to 2021 37
• Table 2: Predicted Indigenous population by age and remoteness: 2026 44
• Table 3: Predicted Indigenous population growth 2021 to 2026, by remoteness and community size 46
• Table 4: Predicted 2021—26 change in Indigenous population, by state or territory and remoteness 47
• Table 5: Remote Indigenous communities: population trends by age, 2011—2026 50
• List of tables 5
• List of figures 5
• Acronyms and abbreviations used in this report 6
• Glossary 6
• Statement on terminology 6
• Executive summary 7
• 1. Introduction 13
• 1.1 Mobility, infrastructure and services in remote Indigenous communities 14
• 1.1.1 COVID-19 and Indigenous mobility 15
• 1.2 Why this research was conducted 16
• 1.3 Research methods 16
• 1.3.1 Literature review 17
• 1.3.2 Population modelling and projections 17
• 1.3.3 Stakeholder consultations 18
• 1.3.4 Remote community case studies 18
• 1.4 Structure of the report 19
• 2. Literature Review 20
• 2.1 The policy and service delivery context 21
• 2.1.1 Crowding and housing infrastructure 21
• 2.1.2 Implications for climate change risks 23
• 2.1.3 Impact on health and wellbeing 24
• 2.2 Policies affecting remote communities 24
• 2.3 Demographic changes in remote Indigenous communities 26
• 2.4 Temporary population mobility: patterns and motivations 28
• 2.4.1 Temporary mobility and homelessness 28
• 2.4.2 Patterns of temporary mobility 29
• 2.5 The relationship between population mobility and access to service and infrastructure provision 30
• 2.6 The impact of COVID-19 on population mobility and housing and infrastructure needs 31
• 2.7 Return to Country initiatives 32
• 2.8 Summary and policy implications 33
• 3. Remote community population modelling and projections 35
• 3.1 Overview of the population modelling and projections 36
• 3.2 Developing projections to 2026 38
• 3.3 Indigenous population trends and projections 41
• 3.4 Population trends and projections in regional and remote Australia 44
• 3.4.1 Projections by community size and remoteness 45
• 3.4.2 Projections by state or territory and remoteness 46
• 3.4.3 Population ageing in outer regional and remote Australia 48
• 3.4.4 Remote Indigenous communities 49
• 3.5 Summary and policy implications 50
• 4. Remote community case studies 52
• 4.1 Overview of the case study research 53
• 4.2 Selection of the case studies 53
• 4.3 Description of the case study communities 53
• 4.3.1 Community A – South Australia 53
• 4.3.2 Community B – Western Australia 54
• 4.3.3 Community C – Northern Territory 55
• 4.4 Remote community population trends 55
• 4.4.1 Past population trends 55
• 4.4.2 Future population trends 56
• 4.4.3 Accuracy of ABS Census data 56
• 4.5 Drivers of population mobility 57
• 4.6 Relationship between mobility, infrastructure and services in remote communities 59
• 4.6.1 Housing 59
• 4.6.2 Essential infrastructure 61
• 4.6.3 Services 61
• 4.7 Implications for remote community infrastructure and service funding and delivery 66
• 4.7.1 Future remote community infrastructure and service needs 66
• 4.7.2 Data and governance requirements 71
• 4.8 Summary and policy implications 74
• 5. Conclusions and policy implications 77
• 5.1 Indigenous population trends and projections 77
• 5.2 Patterns and drivers of Indigenous people’s mobility 77
• 5.3 Infrastructure and service delivery needs of remote communities 78
• 5.4 Resourcing and governance of remote community infrastructure and services 80
• 5.5 Final remarks 82
• References 83
• Appendix 1: Detailed methodology for the population modelling and projections 90