We provide the first evidence on transgender earnings in the US using administrative data on over 55,000 individuals who changed their gender marker with the Social Security Administration and had gender-congruent first name changes on tax records. We validate and describe this sample which exhibits positive selection likely associated with the ability to legally affirm gender. To address selection we estimate transgender earnings gaps using timing variation within-person and variation across siblings and coworkers. All three approaches return evidence of robust transgender earnings penalties of 6-13 log points driven by extensive and intensive margin differences.
Authors
- Acknowledgements & Disclosure
- We are grateful to Olivia Compton, Marcus Dillender, Erwan Dujeancourt, Taryn Eames, Donn Feir, Gilbert Gonzales, Rob Haggar, Sam Mann, Mike Martell, Josh Martin, Laura Nettuno, Elisabeth Perlman, Jamie Ryan, Dario Sansone, Edson Severnini, Lawrence Stacey, Christina Sun, Lucas Tilley, Arthur Wickard, seminar and conference participants at Carnegie Mellon University (Heinz), ITAM, RAND, University of Illinois β Chicago, University of Maryland, Vanderbilt University, the CSQIEP Virtual Seminar on LGBTQ+ Economics, the 2024 Washington Area Labor Economics Symposium, and the 2023 Office of Tax Analysis Research Conference for helpful comments. This research would not have been possible without the help and foresight of Geoffrey Gee. All errors are our own. This research was conducted while Goodman was an employee at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or the official positions of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Any taxpayer data used in this research was kept in a secured Treasury or IRS data repository, and all results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3386/w32691
- Pages
- 88
- Published in
- United States of America
Table of Contents
- NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES 1
- TRANSGENDER EARNINGS GAPS IN THE UNITED STATES EVIDENCE FROM ADMINISTRATIVE DATA 1
- Christopher S. Carpenter Lucas Goodman Maxine J. Lee 1
- Working Paper 32691 httpwww.nber.orgpapersw32691 1
- NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02138 July 2024 1
- Transgender Earnings Gaps in the United States Evidence from Administrative Data Christopher S. Carpenter Lucas Goodman and Maxine J. Lee NBER Working Paper No. 32691 July 2024 JEL No. J0J10 2
- Christopher S. Carpenter Department of Economics Vanderbilt University VU Station B Box 351819 2301 Vanderbilt Place Nashville TN 37235 and NBER christopher.s.carpentervanderbilt.edu 2
- Lucas Goodman Office of Tax Analysis Department of Treasury 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington DC 20220 Lucas.Goodmantreasury.gov 2
- Maxine J. Lee mcleesfsu.edu 2
- Bostock vs. Clayton County 3
- I. Literature Review 7
- II. INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT 10
- III. Describing Transgender Individuals in US Administrative Data 12
- IV. Estimates of Transgender Earnings Gaps 17
- A. Panel evidence 17
- π‘π‘ ππ 6 ππ 4 18
- ππ π‘π‘ 19
- ππ ππππππππ 19
- ππ ππ π½π½ 1 19
- π‘π‘ ππ ππ 1πΊπΊ ππππππππ 19
- πΌπΌ π½π½ πΌπΌ πΊπΊ ππ πΌπΌ ππππππππ ππ 21
- πΌπΌ πΊπΊ ππππππππ 21
- πΌπΌ πΌπΌ 0.179 πΌπΌ πΌπΌ 0.037 21
- πΌπΌ π½π½ πΌπΌ πΊπΊ ππ ππππππππ ππ 22
- πΌπΌ πΊπΊ ππ ππππππππ πΉπΉ 22
- πΌπΌ ππππππππ ππ 22
- πΌπΌ ππππππππ πΉπΉ πΊπΊ ππ 22
- πΌπΌ ππππππππ ππ πΊπΊ πΉπΉ 22
- 0.179 πΌπΌ πΌπΌ 22
- 0.037 πΌπΌ πΌπΌ 22
- πΌπΌ πΌπΌ 22
- πΌπΌ πΌπΌ 22
- 0 πΌπΌ πΌπΌ 22
- πΌπΌ πΌπΌ 0.037 πΌπΌ 0.142 22
- B. Cross-sectional Evidence Using Sibling Comparisons 23
- C. Cross-sectional Evidence Using Coworker Comparisons 26
- D Summary of Estimates of Transgender Earnings Gaps 28
- VI. Conclusion 28
- REFERENCES 31
- Labour Economics 31
- The American Statistician 31
- Quarterly Journal of Economics 31
- Management Science 31
- Journal of Economic Perspectives 31
- Journal of Economic Literature 31
- The Journal of Law Medicine Ethics 31
- Journal of Economic Literature 31
- American Journal of Psychiatry 31
- Pew Research Center 31
- British Journal of Industrial Relations 31
- AEA Papers and Proceedings 32
- Industrial Labor Relations Review 32
- Southern Economic Journal 32
- Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences 32
- Quarterly Journal of Economics 32
- Sociological Methods Research 32
- The Stata Journal 32
- Demography 32
- European Economic Review 33
- Journal of Labor Economics 33
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics 33
- The Oxford Handbook of Women and the Economy 33
- Labour Economics 33
- LGBT Health 33
- Paying an Unfair Price The Financial Penalty for Being Transgender in America. 34
- Doc 2010- 2490 2010 TNT 22-8 34
- Economics of Education Review 34
- The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis Policy 34
- Labour Economics 34
- Demography 34
- Figure 1a Counts of Administrative First Name and Gender Marker Changes Have Increased Over Time 35
- Figure 1b Transgender Men Transition at Younger Ages than Transgender Women on Average 35
- Figure 2a Transgender Men as a Share of State Population are Concentrated in More Progressive States 36
- Figure 2b Transgender Women as a Share of State Population are Concentrated in More Progressive States 36
- Figure 3 Poisson Event Study Estimates of Annual Earnings 37
- Figure 4 Event Study Estimates of Extensive Margin Participation 38
- Table 1 Descriptive Statistics on Age Geography Education Family and Childhood Background Outcomes 39
- Table 2 Siblings Fixed Effects Estimates of Transgender Earnings Gaps 40
- Table 3 Coworker Fixed Effects Estimates of Transgender Earnings Gaps 41
- Online Appendix Not for Publication 42
- Transgender Earnings Gaps in the United States 42
- Evidence from Administrative Data 42
- A. Identifying likely transgender individuals and labor market outcomes 42
- ππππ 43
- Prπ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ππππ Prπππππ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπππππ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπππππππππ‘π‘ Prπππππ‘π‘ 43
- Prπππππ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπππππππππ‘π‘ 43
- Prπππππ‘π‘ Pr π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ 43
- Prπ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ππππ 43
- π‘π‘ππ 43
- Prπ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ππππππ 43
- Prπ‘π‘πππππππ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπ‘π‘πππππππ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπ‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ Prπ‘π‘πππππππππππ‘π‘ Prπππππ‘π‘ 43
- Prπππππππππ‘π‘ 43
- ππ ππ 44
- ππ ππ 5 44
- Appendix Table A1 Counts of SSA Gender Marker Changes 47
- B. Additional validation of algorithm 48
- π‘π‘ π‘π‘ π‘π‘ 1 50
- π‘π‘ π‘π‘ 1 50
- π‘π‘ π‘π‘ 1 50
- Appendix Table B1 Descriptive Statistics Individuals with Gender Marker Change but Without Gender- Congruent Name Change 52
- Appendix Table B2 Form 1040 name change year versus Record Update dataset name change year 53
- Appendix Table B3 Form 1040 name change year versus Record Update gender marker change year 54
- Appendix Table B4 Timing of gender marker change relative to name change 55
- Appendix Figure B1 Apparent Timing of Gender Marker Changes 56
- C. Construction of control sample 57
- D. Additional detail regarding matching to parents and parents income 58
- E. Evidence on medical expense deductions moves and marital status changes 59
- Appendix Figure E1a Likelihood of Medical Expense Deduction Increases Sharply Coincident with Timing of Name Change Among Transgender Sample 61
- Appendix Figure E1b Average Medical Expense Deduction Increases Sharply Coincident with Timing of Name Change Among Transgender Sample 61
- Appendix Figure E2a Cross state moves 62
- Appendix Figure E2b Democratic vote share 62
- Appendix Figure E3 Married 63
- Appendix Figure E4a Entry into marriage 64
- Appendix Figure E4b Divorce 64
- F. Decomposition of transgender earnings gap in panel 65
- π¦π¦ ππ ππ ππ 65
- π¦π¦ π·π· 1 65
- ππ 4 ππ 4 ΞΞ 65
- π¦π¦ π·π· 65
- π·π· 1 π·π· 1 65
- π¦π¦ ππ 65
- π·π· π¦π¦ 65
- π¦π¦ π¦π¦ π·π· 1 π¦π¦ 65
- π·π· 0 65
- ΞΞπππ½π½ 67
- ΞΞππ 67
- π½π½ ππ 67
- ΞΞπππ½π½ 67
- Appendix Table F1 Decomposition of Panel Earnings Gap into Extensive and Intensive Margins 69
- Appendix Table F2 Intensive Margin Decomposition of Earnings Gap Between Transgender Women and Cisgender Men 70
- Appendix Figure F1 Non-participation by transgender women transfer income 71
- Appendix Figure F2 Non-participation by transgender women family support and non-labor activities 72
- Appendix Figure F3 Non-participation by transgender women other sources of non-transfer income 73
- Appendix Figure F4 Non-participation by transgender men transfer income 74
- Appendix Figure F5 Non-participation by transgender men family support and non-labor activities 75
- Appendix Figure F6 Non-participation by transgender men other sources of non-transfer income 76
- G. Construction of industry and occupation variables 77
- Appendix Table G1 Industry 78
- Appendix Table G2 Occupation 79
- H. The role of different control variables in the siblings comparisons 80
- Appendix Table H1 Siblings Fixed Effects Estimates of Transgender Earnings Gaps 83
- I. Additional Tables and Figures 85
- Appendix Figure I1 Log mean earnings by group and event time 85
- Appendix Table I1 Panel Estimates of Transgender Earnings Gaps 86
- Appendix Table I2 Covariate Differences Between Transgender Individuals and Their Siblings 87
- Appendix Table I3 Covariate Differences Between Transgender Individuals and Their Coworkers 88
