Donald Trump’s campaign speeches have impressed some and outraged others. Yet relatively little is known about how his rhetoric has changed over time and how it compares to that of other politicians, both in the US and abroad. We analyze a monthly series of Trump’s public addresses in 2015-24, comparing them to speeches by other U.S. presidential candidates and various world leaders, past and present. We find that Trump’s use of violent vocabulary has increased over time—reflecting increasing attention to wars but even more to crime—and now surpasses that of all other democratic politicians we studied. Simultaneously, Trump’s use of words related to economic performance has declined, matching a general trend among presidential candidates. Finally, although containing populist elements, Trump’s rhetoric diverges from the populist stereotype in notable ways, particularly in his relatively infrequent references to “the people.” He increasingly exemplifies a negative populism, concentrated on denigrating out-groups.
Authors
- Acknowledgements & Disclosure
- The authors have no sources of funding or financial relationships relevant to this project. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3386/w32665
- Pages
- 32
- Published in
- United States of America
Table of Contents
- NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES 1
- DONALD TRUMPS WORDS 1
- Nikita Savin Daniel Treisman 1
- Working Paper 32665 httpwww.nber.orgpapersw32665 1
- NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02138 July 2024 1
- Donald Trumps words Nikita Savin and Daniel Treisman NBER Working Paper No. 32665 July 2024 JEL No. P0 2
- Nikita Savin Department of Political Science UCLA 4289 Bunche Hall Los Angeles CA 90095-1472 USA nikitasaving.ucla.edu 2
- Daniel Treisman Department of Political Science UCLA 4289 Bunche Hall Los Angeles CA 90095-1472 and NBER treismanpolisci.ucla.edu 2
- A data appendix is available at httpwww.nber.orgdata-appendixw32665 2
- 1. Violence 2. Specific to 14
- 3. Specific to 14
- Trump rallies 2023-24 1.06 0.21 0.29 14
- Trump rallies 2019-20 0.77 0.14 0.18 14
- Trump rallies 2015-16 0.55 0.07 0.13 14
- The people We They Elites 19
- Trump rallies 2023-24 .09 3.22 2.64 .46 19
- Trump rallies 2019-20 .19 3.76 2.50 .25 19
- Trump rallies 2015-16 .13 3.27 2.47 .37 19