Natural gas markets moved to more pronounced growth in the first half of 2024, with initial estimates indicating that global gas demand increased at a rate well above its historical average during this period. Demand growth is primarily supported by higher gas use in industry and is increasingly concentrated in Asia, where both China and India returned to double-digit growth rates in the first half of 2024.
Despite this strong growth, the outlook for gas demand remains fragile. Global LNG production underperformed in the second quarter of 2024, while geopolitical tensions are fuelling price volatility. Natural gas prices increased across all key markets in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting tighter market fundamentals. For the full year of 2024, natural gas demand is forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2024, primarily driven by fast-growing Asian markets.
Geopolitical instability represents the greatest risk to the short-term outlook. LNG trade has practically halted across the Red Sea since the start of the year, while Russia is increasingly targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine, including underground gas storage facilities. In this context, security of supply for natural gas remains a key aspect of energy policy making and the risks related to our outlook highlight the need to strengthen international co-operation, including in assessing and implementing flexibility options along gas and LNG value chains.
This edition of the quarterly Gas Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides a thorough review of market developments over the first half of 2024 and a short-term outlook for the remainder of 2024. As part of the IEA’s Low-Emissions Gases Work Programme , the report includes a section dedicated to the medium-term outlook for biomethane, low-emissions hydrogen and e-methane.
- Pages
- 62
- Published in
- France
Table of Contents
- Gas Market Report, Q3-2024 1
- Abstract 3
- Table of contents 4
- Executive summary 5
- Global gas markets returned to growth in the first half of 2024, but outlook remains fragile 6
- Global gas trade growth tightened in Q2 2024 amid lower LNG supply availability 8
- Natural gas prices strengthened across all key markets in Q2 2024 9
- The supply of low-emissions gases is expected to more than double by 2027 10
- Gas market update 11
- Global gas demand returned to more pronounced growth in H1 2024 12
- Asia accounted for around 60% of incremental gas demand in H1 2024 14
- Strong growth in industry drives incremental gas demand in 2024 15
- North American gas demand increased by an estimated 2% in the first half of 2024… 16
- …primarily fuelled by strong gas burn in the US power sector 17
- Strong gas-fired power generation drives demand growth in Central and South America… 18
- …with the region’s gas consumption rising by an estimated 3% in H1 2024 19
- Asia’s natural gas demand grew by an estimated 8% in H1 2024 20
- China and India drove Asia’s gas demand growth in H1 2024 24
- European natural gas demand continued to decline in H1 2024… 25
- …primarily driven by plummeting gas burn in the power sector 26
- US production lifted by associated gas in H1 2024, but the rest of 2024 is set for slight decline 27
- US dry gas production growth turned negative in Q2 2024 28
- Eurasian natural gas production is set to increase in 2024 29
- Russia’s natural gas production grew by an estimated 7% in H1 2024, driven both by stronger exports and higher domestic demand 30
- Europe’s primary natural gas supply tightened in H1 2024… 31
- …with the region’s LNG imports plummeting by nearly 20% 32
- LNG supply growth was hit by outages in H1 2024, but is set to accelerate in H2 2024 33
- Europe continues to reduce its LNG intake as Asia absorbs both relinquished and new volumes 36
- Qatar’s LNG carrier fleet is expected to reach over 120 modern vessels by 2030 38
- Natural gas prices recorded strong gains across all key markets in Q2 2024 39
- Asian spot LNG prices are expected to retain their premium over TTF in H2 2024 40
- Soft demand and stable supply set storage inventories on a robust filling trajectory in 2024 41
- Storage levels have tracked above recent averages and are likely to remain so ahead of winter 42
- Medium-term outlook for low-emissions gases 43
- In the fast lane: The supply of low-emissions gases is set to more than double by 2027 44
- Biomethane and hydrogen drive the growth in low-emissions gases over the medium term 45
- Biomethane is set for rapid expansion in the medium term amid growing policy support 46
- The transport sector is a key driver behind biomethane growth in the United States 47
- Global biomethane production is expected to double between 2023 and 2027 50
- Low-emissions hydrogen production is set to increase fivefold in the medium term 51
- Despite a growing project pipeline, only a small share of projects are at mature planning stages 52
- Some e-methane projects aim to start operating or take FID within the next three years 53
- Global e-methane output could potentially grow by 2030 54
- Annex 55
- Summary table 56
- Regional and country groupings 57
- Abbreviations and acronyms 58
- Units of measure 59
- Acknowledgements, contributors and credits 60
