Global supply chains recently faced widespread disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions in 2021 and 2022, while in late 2023, geopolitical incidents in the Red Sea and water shortages in the Panama Canal disrupted global shipping routes. Regardless of the cause, delays, or rerouting mean that disruption diffuses at a global scale. To quantify and assess the magnitude of disruptions globally or locally, in 2021, the World Bank developed a proposed metric, the Global Supply Chain Stress Index. The index derives from Automatic Identification System tracking data. It calculates the equivalent stalled ship capacity measured in twenty-foot equivalent units), providing data at the port, country, regional, and global levels. This granular information can inform targeted interventions and contingency planning, improving the resilience of maritime infrastructure and networks. The index explains the observed surges in shipping rates during disruptions, assuming shippers’ willingness to pay for scarcer shipping slots. An increase of 1 million twenty-foot equivalent units in global stress pushes the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index up by US$2,300 per twenty-foot equivalent unit.
Authors
Arvis, Jean-François, Rastogi, Cordula, Rodrigue, Jean-Paul, Ulybina, Daria
- Citation
- “ Arvis, Jean-François ; Rastogi, Cordula ; Rodrigue, Jean-Paul ; Ulybina, Daria . 2024 . A Metric of Global Maritime Supply Chain Disruptions: The Global Supply Chain Stress Index (GSCSI) . Policy Research Working Paper; 10839 . © Washington, DC: World Bank . http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41873 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO . ”
- Collection(s)
- Policy Research Working Papers
- DOI
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10839
- Identifier externaldocumentum
- 34360500
- Identifier internaldocumentum
- 34360500
- Pages
- 28
- Published in
- United States of America
- RelationisPartofseries
- Policy Research Working Paper; 10839
- Report
- WPS10839
- Rights
- CC BY 3.0 IGO
- Rights Holder
- World Bank
- Rights URI
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
- UNIT
- EFI-MTI-TIC-Trade and RI (ETIRI)
- URI
- https://hdl.handle.net/10986/41873
- date disclosure
- 2024-07-16
- region geographical
- World
Files
Table of Contents
- 1. Introduction 4
- 2. Conceptual Framework and Data Sources 5
- 3. The Model 6
- Intermediate Data Frame 6
- Estimating Reference Transit Time 7
- Construction of the Index 9
- 4. Findings and Applications of the Index 9
- The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2021-22 Supply Chain Disruption 10
- The Red Sea Crisis 12
- Port-Level Stress 12
- 5. The GSCSI and Other Indexes 14
- Suppliers’ Delivery Times from the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) 14
- Sea Intelligence Schedule Reliability Index 15
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index 15
- 6. Stress and Rates: Competing for Scarce Capacity 16
- Convergence between GSCSI and Freight Rates 16
- Conceptual Framework of Stress and Rate Formation 18
- Empirical Connection of Stress and Rate 18
- 7. Conclusion 19
- References and resources 21
- List of acronyms 23
- Annex 1: Global Supply Chain Stress index for selected maritime regions (in TEUs) 24
- Annex 2: Global Supply Chain Stress Index (TEUs) for selected seaports, 2019-2024 25
- Annex 3: A preliminary model: How stress quantitatively relate to rates in times of crisis 26
- Empirical implementation 27
- Annex 4: Value per TEU at STIC 2 digits (median observed value) 28
