This paper describes power sector modeling methodologies for the World Bank's macrostructural model - MFMod. Macrostructural models generally do not model sectors, such as the power sector, in detail, limiting their capacity to represent deep system transformation (for example, low-carbon energy transitions). The main constraints to adequate sector modeling are data availability and technological representation of the power system. Time-series data for specific production factors across sectors do not exist consistently for most countries in World Bank models. This paper describes two distinct methods to overcome this constraint: (i) using a more granular representation of the production function and (ii) linking the macrostructural model with the World Bank's electricity planning models. These methods provide a more nuanced technical representation of deep transformations, enabling discussions on their macroeconomic consequences. The paper provides results for Mauritania and South Africa. These methodologies serve as a blueprint for macroeconomic modeling of energy transitions in this class of models.
Authors
- DOI
- https://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10853
- Disclosure Date
- 2024/07/17
- Disclosure Status
- Disclosed
- Doc Name
- Electricity Transition in MFMod : A Methodological Note with Applications
- Originating Unit
- Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
- Pages
- 32
- Published in
- United States of America
- Series Name
- Policy Research working paper; PROSPERITY;
- Unit Owning
- EFI-MTI-Global Macro and Debt (EMFMD)
- Version Type
- Final
- Volume No
- 1
Table of Contents
- Introduction 4
- Specifying sectoral accounts 5
- Mitigation channels 10
- Determining energy production and consumption 10
- Aggregate production 10
- Production of energy 12
- Consumption 13
- Determining physical quantities 14
- Electricity imports 16
- How the model embeds desired energy transition paths 16
- Soft-linking energy planning models to MFMod 17
- CAPEX 19
- Approach through prices 20
- Approach through quantities 21
- OPEX 22
- Emissions 24
- Model simulations 24
- A USD 20 carbon tax in South Africa 24
- Electricity planning simulations for Mauritania 27
- Concluding remarks and ways forward 29
