The median purchase rate decreased from 6.88% to 6.75% in week 28, 2024. According to Mortgage News Daily, the avg. 30-year rate was 6.81% on July 15 th . Purchase volume was down 43% from the same week in 2019 and down 18% YoY. Preliminary YoY HPA was 5.4% in May 2024. It is projected to be around 5.6% and 5.3% for June 2024 and July 2024, respectively. Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively high rates, YoY HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being well-qualified. As interest rates have moved sharply higher since mid-2022, no cash-out volume has disappeared almost entirely. Cash-out volume has also contracted sharply due to higher rates, but has hovered between 30,000 to 44,000 loans since November 2022. This is down over 80% from a peak of 250,000 loans in October 2021. For the mortgage industry, the market continued a seasonally driven volume uptick in April. Total agency loan volume in April 2024 (refi and purchase loans combined) was 263,000, up 3% from 255,000 in March 2024 but down 2% YoY. This represented the highest level since Nov 2023 as a robust start for the 2024 spring buying season. Based on our analysis of Optimal Blue data, we expect the seasonal volume leveling off to begin in the months ahead.
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