Getting the 2022–23 Elections Right, Part I

While 2022 was undoubtedly a good year for Democrats, analysts today lean too heavily on the results when looking to 2024. Republicans received the most votes for Congress by substantial margins in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The only true swing state in which Republicans failed to win a majority of the vote was Michigan. Republicans also had a pretty good year in state legislatures. Though not as strong as 2010 or 2014, Republicans still received a majority of the vote. In fact, their margin was roughly the same as it was in congressional elections. The idea that the 2022 election represented a massive repudiation of Donald Trump is not supported by the result. If Republicans match that showing in 2024, Trump will almost certainly return to the White House, with full control of the House and Senate.