Further, the line traverses areas of bushland and, as such, in the event of a failure of the line’s structure there is the potential for the ignition of a bushfire. [...] Further, the line traverses areas of bushland and, as such, in the event of a failure of the line’s structure there is the potential for the ignition of a bushfire. [...] Consistent with the age of these assets and their usage since commissioning, these condition issues are due to: 10 | Managing risk on the George Town – TEMCO transmission line Public Y@2S%4#5 • the coastal location of the line; • the exposure of the line to industrial pollution throughout its operation; and • the total breakdown of the structure’s protective coatings. [...] The remainder of this section describes the assumptions underpinning our assessment of the risk costs, ie, the value of the risk avoided by undertaking each of the credible options. [...] The avoided unserved energy for a credible option is calculated as the difference between the expected unserved energy under the base case and the expected unserved energy under the credible option, with the associated market benefit calculated using a reasonable forecast of the value of electricity to consumers.
Authors
- Pages
- 37
- Published in
- Australia
Table of Contents
- Glossary 4
- Disclaimer 4
- Executive Summary 5
- Identified need: Managing risk on the GT-TE line 5
- Four credible options have been considered 5
- Non-network options are not expected to be able to assist with this RIT-T 6
- The options have been assessed against three reasonable scenarios 6
- Option 4 delivers the greatest estimated net benefits 7
- Draft conclusion 7
- Exemption from preparing a PADR 7
- NER 5.16.4(z1) provides for a TNSP to be exempt from producing a Project Assessment Draft Report (PADR) for a particular RIT-T application if certain criteria are met. 7
- We consider that the investment in relation to Option 4 and the analysis in this PSCR meet these criteria and therefore that we are exempt from producing a PADR. 7
- We therefore intend to publish a Project Assessment Conclusions Report (PACR) as the next and final step for this RIT-T, that addresses all submissions received and presents our conclusion on the preferred option. 7
- Introduction 8
- Purpose of this report 8
- Exemption from preparing a PADR 9
- Submissions and next steps 9
- Identified Need 11
- Background to the identified need 11
- Description of the identified need 12
- Assumptions underpinning the identified need 13
- Asset health and the probability of failure 14
- Reliability risk 15
- Bushfire risk 15
- Financial risk 15
- Safety risk 16
- Credible options 17
- Base case 17
- Option 1 – Augment Starwood transmission line 18
- Option 2 – Defer renewal of transmission line 19
- Option 3 – Refurbish transmission line 19
- Option 4 – Renew transmission line 20
- Options considered but not progressed 20
- No material inter-network impact is expected 20
- Non-network options 22
- Required technical characteristics of non-network options 22
- Materiality of market benefits 23
- Changing in involuntary load shedding is material 23
- Wholesale electricity market benefits are not material 24
- No other classes of market benefits are considered material 24
- Overview of assessment approach 26
- Description of the base case 26
- Assessment period and discount rate 26
- Approach to estimating option costs 26
- The options have been assessed against three reasonable scenarios 27
- Sensitivity analysis 28
- Assessment of credible options 29
- Estimated gross benefits 29
- Estimated gross costs 29
- Estimated net market benefits 29
- Sensitivity testing 30
- Step 1 – sensitivity testing of the optimal timing 30
- Step 2 – sensitivity of the overall net benefit 31
- Draft conclusion and exemption from preparing a PADR 34
- A.1 Project Specification Consultation Report compliance checklist 35
