cover image: Microsoft Word - SITO Zim Risk Analysis final edited and the very final version.doc



Microsoft Word - SITO Zim Risk Analysis final edited and the very final version.doc

28 Feb 2011

However, the final version of the constitution that should be put to a referendum is likely to be a negotiated document between the MDC and Zanu PF with the concerns of the people taking a back seat. [...] From a stakeholder perspective, the key threats to democracy and human rights include: • State repression of political and economic opposition; • Increasing militarisation of public and private space; • Threats of political violence and intimidation; • Insufficient electoral reforms; • A prejudiced and ineffective judiciary and disregard for the rule of law; • The inability of civil society to adv. [...] The withdrawal of bilateral aid, a significant decrease in Official Development Assistance (ODA) and STATES IN TRANSITION OBSERVATORY 5 state inefficiency and corruption undermine the government’s capacity to deliver basic services to poor communities and rehabilitate collapsed infrastructure in the wake of hyper-inflation and the economic collapse. [...] Mnangagwa is widely believed to be the only person who has the ability to guarantee the security and interests of the state military and security apparatus; a key factor in understanding the military’s influential meddling in the country’s electoral process. [...] Once again, the SADC and members of the international community must come together and agree on a synchronised and public message that will engender concerted pressure on Zanu PF and the security sector to embrace and enact reforms.
Published in
Port Elizabeth, South Africa