Steps to enable a Middle East regional security process

The Middle East region urgently needs a framework for security. Its multiple conflicts and wars, intensifying competition among key regional states and persistent governance challenges all pose a deep and profound threat to the well-being and livelihoods of the region’s population. This paper argues that the process for getting to a regional security framework should begin now, as conditions are – counterintuitively – favourable. Arriving at a regional security framework will require international and regional investment in conflict management and trust-building. Addressing Iran’s interventionist role in conflicts and countries beyond its borders is key to this process. But if there is to be any prospect of improvement in regional dynamics, not only does Iran need to recognize the counterproductive impact of its financial and military support for proxy groups across the region: Arab states also have to acknowledge that they too bear responsibility in driving conflict. Regionalizing solutions brings a greater chance of success. This paper draws on interview-based research to examine how international and regional actors might arrive at a regional security framework for the Middle East. Based on the findings from 210 confidential interviews with experts and current and former policymakers from 15 countries, it is clear that the point at which a regional security process can be mapped out can only be arrived at through discussion, de-escalation and conflict resolution involving all regional actors, enabled by critical external partners. This means committing to the multiple pathways set out through the paper. Although these pathways are non-linear, all must eventually lead to a point where the pursuit of regional security is viable. As part of this, the foundational step lies in the Biden administration’s re-engagement with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the Iran nuclear deal from which the US withdrew in 2018 – and Iran’s return to compliance. Alongside lie crisis-resolution tracks – focusing on the wars in Yemen and Syria, building greater solidarity among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, and the Israel–Palestine conflict – and the creation of meaningful confidence-building measures. There is little doubt that the US will continue on its trajectory of Middle East disengagement and competition with Russia and China under the Biden presidency. Nonetheless, the change of administration in Washington creates a clear opportunity for multilateral cooperation and conflict management in the Middle East, drawing on resources and support from Europe, Russia and China.