Dr. Irene STACHER

Why is that? I will first give some long-term arguments that speak against the prospect of a flood of new migrants from the new Member Countries entering the labour markets of Western Europe and 1 then draw the attention to the expected short-term effects of EU-enlargement and as a last point I would like mention the question of illegal/irregular migration to the enlarged Europe. [...] The Long-Term Effects The first argument is based on the migration experience of the 1990s: despite the fears at the beginning of the decade and notwithstanding regional variations, for the whole of the EU-15 immigration from the Central and Eastern European Accession countries has turned out to be relatively small. [...] Thus, the population of the new Member States will enjoy freedom of movement and residence but for the access to the labour market there will be restriction during the transition periods. [...] First, the application of the Dublin II regulation which will become fully operational across the EU-25 on 1 May 2004, supported by the EURODAC system, may divert flows from the asylum system to completely clandestine (transit) movements although controls on the internal borders to the new Member States, and between the new Member States, will be kept until the full implementation of the Schengen. [...] Second, the immediate validity of the principle of freedom of movement and residence after enlargement in May 2004, in connection with restrictions in the access to the labour market, could lead to a situation, where more citizens of the new Member States pursue illegal employment in the “old” Member States.