S TRATEGIC F ORUM S

Tony Lawrence is the Head of the Defence Policy and Strategy Programme at the Interna- Sponsored by the National Defense University (NDU) and the Swedish tional Centre for Defence and Securi-ty in Tallinn, Estonia. [...] to execute an antiaccess/area-denial strategy that results The primary instruments of disinformation include the in a fait accompli.9 The final deterrent is Russia’s threat of propagation of articles in Russian and national language using nuclear weapons to “escalate to deescalate.”10 media and the use of social media trolls to spread fake It is no surprise, then, that since the Baltic states’ in-. [...] The three later versions of the and strategic communications policies that endeavor to National Security Concept were adopted after Estonia inform and engage the population in the activities of the joined NATO and the EU in 2004. [...] On the contrary, it deepened wealth inequal- It is a mistake to consider the Russian-speaking pop- ity and consequently increased sentiments of relative de- ulation in Latvia and in the Baltics a fifth column ready privation.51 As result, a significant part of the population to support a Russian operation in the region. [...] The center conducts directed expressed or implied within are those of the contributors research and analysis in the areas of strategic and regional and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Defense studies and engages in independent and leading-edge re- Department or any other agency of the Federal Govern- search and analysis in related areas.