We will find contradicting results later on and consider the better accuracy of betting odds at the end of the 2019/2020 season not to be related to an improving estimation of betting providers but purely to the return of the home advantage. [...] 7 To test the latter claim and to determine what exactly drives the recovery of the home advantage, we check whether attendance differences can explain heterogeneity in the loss of the home advantage in the Bundesliga. [...] We find that the implicit probabilities pHm of home win odds do not sufficiently account for the decrease of the home advantage in the Bundesliga. [...] Second, we also observe an imperfect pattern in the market reaction to ghost games in the Bundesliga 2: Admittedly the market anticipates correctly the reduction of the home advantage to be smaller than in the Bundesliga, but the expected decrease in the home advantage is still positive and significant (s. [...] Moreover, the negative expected ghost game effect in Bundesliga 2 indicates that the betting market did not correctly assess the role of fan support and attendance for the reduction in the home advantage as a crucial driver of this effect.
- Pages
- 21
- Published in
- Germany
