In seismology, aftershocks are smaller earthquakes originating from the destabilised crust in the regions close to a larger earthquake, the mainshock. In this thesis we study this phenomenon from three distinct perspectives. In the first one we unveil the connections between simple models of aftershocks occurrence and record statistics of stochastic processes. The second approach builds up on the similarities between earthquake sequences and mainshock-aftershocks groups with the creep dynamics of a domain wall expanding in a thin magnetic film. Finally, we use machine learning tools to construct a forecasting method for aftershock occurrence by exploiting measurements of surface deformation coming from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. As an addendum, in the last part of the thesis, we discuss the physics of yield-stress fluids in porous media and its links to the physics of disorder systems and directed polymers in random media.
Authors
- Bibliographic Reference
- Vincenzo Schimmenti. Temporal and spatial correlations in earthquake dynamics : physical modeling and data analysis. Statistical Mechanics [cond-mat.stat-mech]. Université Paris-Saclay, 2023. English. ⟨NNT : 2023UPASP159⟩. ⟨tel-04344778⟩
- HAL Collection
- ['STAR - Dépôt national des thèses électroniques', 'Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Sciences du Numérique', 'A&O (Apprentissage et Optimisation)']
- HAL Identifier
- 4344778
- Institution
- ['Université Paris-Saclay', 'Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique', 'CentraleSupélec']
- Laboratory
- ['Laboratoire de Physique Théorique et Modèles Statistiques', 'Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Sciences du Numérique']
- Published in
- France
Table of Contents
- Acknowledgements 7
- Introduction 10
- Records, stick-slip motion and aftershocks 13
- Stick-slip motion 13
- Connection with record statistics 16
- Classical record statistics 18
- IID Random variables 18
- Linear-trended series 22
- A novel record model 22
- Definition 23
- Conditional distributions 25
- Record value distribution 25
- Limiting distribution 26
- The exponential distribution 26
- Age distribution 28
- Numerical results on the Weibull family 29
- Correlations and seismic sequences 31
- Variations of c-records 34
- Conclusion 35
- Earthquake-like dynamics in ultrathin magnetic films 37
- Driven elastic interfaces in random media 37
- Theory: equilibrium 38
- Theory: depinning 41
- Theory: creep 43
- Experiment: the setting 46
- Experiment: data analysis 49
- Experiment: results 51
- Conclusion and future work 53
- Aftershocks and GPS data 55
- GPS data 55
- Surface deformation maps 57
- Constructing input and output 61
- Training models 62
- Training procedure 66
- Logistic Regression Baseline (LRB) 68
- CNN 70
- Interpreting the results 72
- Conclusion and future work 73
- Darcy law and yield-stress fluids 75
- Darcy's law 75
- Pore Network Models 78
- Newtonian fluids 79
- Independent channels 80
- Tree-like network 80
- Darcy law for yield-stress fluids 82
- Single-channel system 83
- Independent channels or the fiber-bundle model 84
- Two-dimensional models 88
- Darcy flow in a tree-like pore network 90
- Large t limit 92
- Numerical results 96
- Conclusion and future work 99
- Conclusion 100
- Résumé en français 102
- Mainshocks: test set 108
- Opening pressures for the first few channels 109
- Discrete KPP equation 113
- The equation 113
- Ground state energy 114
- Density of states above the minimum 116
- Density of states above the minimum with maximal overlap 117
- Large limit of maximal overlap energy levels 118
