A Bright Outlook for the U.S. Economy

After that initial rebound, the economy entered what I call a pre-vaccination recovery, in which the growth rate of the economy was slower than in the initial reopening phase and the level of activity varied with the course of the virus. [...] Economic Growth Since the start of this year, the vaccination rate has increased, the number of new cases has fallen, and the pace of the recovery has accelerated. [...] On the other hand, the commercial real estate sector, in particular, the retail and office segments, continues to struggle given the uncertainties over the future of working arrangements and shopping preferences. [...] As the public health situation continues to improve over the course of the year, I expect that the factors weighing on labor supply will diminish and that there will be strong job gains, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.5 percent or less by the end of the year. [...] We took actions to restore the smooth functioning of the financial markets, to ensure credit could flow to households and businesses, and to increase monetary accommodation in support of the recovery and return to our monetary policy goals of maximum employment and price stability.