Baker1,2,3 1The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The Univer- sity of Melbourne 2School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne 3Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne 4School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, The University of Melbourne July 26, 2024 Cen t r e o f Exce l l en ce f o r B i o se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s. [...] 2024 B io se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s ii Contents Executive summary 1 1 Introduction 5 2 List of pests and diseases 7 2.1 List updates. [...] 38 6.3 Approach 1: Mapping from the National Priority List of Exotic Environ- mental Pests, Weeds and Diseases (for myrtle rust and other pests). [...] 38 6.4 Approach 2: Benefit transfer (for myrtle rust). [...] 40 6.5 Approach 3: Contribution Modelling (for myrtle rust).
Authors
- Pages
- 162
- Published in
- Australia
Table of Contents
- Executive summary 9
- 1 Introduction 13
- 2 List of pests and diseases 15
- 2.1 List updates 16
- 2.2 Framing 19
- 3 Pest parameters 21
- 3.1 Sources for acquired pest parameters 22
- 3.2 Establishment frequencies 25
- 3.3 Spread rates 30
- 3.4 Jump rates 30
- 3.5 Host suitability 30
- 3.6 Time taken 32
- 4 Asset values and spatial layers 35
- 4.1 Spatial layers 36
- 4.2 Asset values 38
- 4.3 Time taken 38
- 5 Market impacts 41
- 5.1 Pest impact (yield loss) on portfolio industries 41
- 5.2 Time taken 43
- 6 Non-market impacts 45
- 6.1 Myrtle Rust (exotic strains) 45
- 6.2 Environmental impacts in the Value Model 46
- 6.3 Approach 1: Mapping from the National Priority List of Exotic Environmental Pests, Weeds and Diseases (for myrtle rust and other pests) 46
- 6.4 Approach 2: Benefit transfer (for myrtle rust) 48
- 6.5 Approach 3: Contribution Modelling (for myrtle rust) 54
- 6.6 Conclusion 64
- 7 Valuing Australia's biosecurity system: 2024 data update 67
- 7.1 Methods 67
- 7.2 Results 75
- 7.3 Discussion 79
- 8 Environmental consequences implementation plan 83
- 8.1 Pest and disease parameter updates 86
- 8.2 Environmental and non-market assets updates 97
- 8.3 Value Model limitations, possible updates, and challenges 103
- 9 Conclusions 109
- Bibliography 111
- 10 Appendices 127
- 10.1 New pest parameters 127
- 10.2 Market asset valuation and pest impacts 130
- 10.3 Expert elicitation 132
- 10.4 Jump calibration 160
- 10.5 Sensitivity analysis 162
