NatSec Brief - April 2021 - JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy - Iran’s Newest Nuclear Steps Won’t Make

• To the contrary, however, the Natanz explosion has delayed Iran’s nuclear program, and slowed its breakout timing, regardless of the April 13 advances, including the move to 60 percent enrichment. [...] º On April 10, Iran announced a major expansion of the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP): the addition of a cascade of IR-6 centrifuges (164 machines), which are estimated to be its most efficient centrifuges used to date. [...] · Although some reports say it might take Iran up to nine months to recover from the explosion, that is the amount of time to rebuild the Natanz facility. [...] · Whether Iran begins enriching its stockpile of 20 percent uranium to 60 percent first (scenario 1 below), or waits until it has accumulated a sufficient stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium (155 kilograms) and only then enriches to 60 percent (scenario 2), or converts a sufficient 20 percent stockpile to 90 percent, does not appreciably impact on its breakout timing. [...] º In this light, Iran’s decision earlier this year to install two IR-6 cascades at Fordo (where installation appears to be ongoing) to contribute to 20 percent enrichment is at least as problematic as its intent to enrich 60 percent uranium.