Forecasting trade and biosecurity risk under climate change James Camac1, Matthew Cantele1, Van Ha Pham2, Christine Li1, Andrew Robinson1, and Tom Kompas1 1The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne 2Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University April 24, 2024 Cen t r e o f Exce l l en ce f o r B i o se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s Cam. [...] 2024 Cen t r e o f Exce l l en ce f o r B i o se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s How to cite: Camac, J. [...] i Contents 1 Executive summary 1 2 Key findings & model utility 3 2.1 Global and regional economic trade consequences of climate change. [...] 47 7.2 Australia: BMSB propagule pressure and establishment exposure. [...] 2024 Cen t r e o f Exce l l en ce f o r B i o se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s 8.3 Australia: Spongy moth risk attributable to different exporters & com- modity sectors.
Authors
- Pages
- 132
- Published in
- Australia
Table of Contents
- 1 Executive summary 11
- 2 Key findings & model utility 13
- 2.1 Global and regional economic trade consequences of climate change 13
- 2.2 Changes in pest propagule pressure & establishment exposure hitting Australia. 15
- 2.3 Potential model utility 17
- 3 Background 18
- 4 Modelling regional impacts of climate change on primary production and trade 20
- 4.1 Simulating climate change impacts 27
- 4.1.1 Climate change scenarios 28
- 4.1.2 Damage functions and shocks 28
- 5 Predicted global damages from climate change 32
- 5.1 Australia’s trade future under climate change 34
- 5.1.1 Manufacturing imports 36
- 5.1.2 Agricultural and other land-use intensive imports 37
- 6 Modelling contamination rates, propagule pressure & establishment exposure 39
- 6.1 Interception & import data 40
- 6.2 Estimating climate suitability 41
- 6.3 Contamination model 50
- 6.4 Estimating establishment exposure given propagule pressure 52
- 6.5 Fundamental model assumptions 54
- 6.6 Model outputs: User friendly interactive maps of pest pressure and exposure for all 70 regions 56
- 7 Overwintering pest: Brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) 57
- 7.1 Likelihoods of contamination 57
- 7.2 Australia: BMSB propagule pressure and establishment exposure 63
- 7.3 Australia: BMSB risk attributable to different exporters & commodity sectors 64
- 8 Egg laying pest: Spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) 67
- 8.1 Likelihoods of contamination 67
- 8.2 Australia: Spongy moth propagule pressure and establishment exposure 72
- 8.3 Australia: Spongy moth risk attributable to different exporters & commodity sectors 73
- 9 Nesting pest: Asian honey bee (Apis cerana) 76
- 9.1 Likelihoods of contamination 76
- 9.2 Australia: Asian honey bee propagule pressure and establishment exposure 80
- 9.3 Australia: Asian honey bee risk attributable to different exporters & commodity sectors 81
- 10 Sheltering pest: Giant African snail (Lissachatina fulica) 84
- 10.1 Likelihoods of contamination 84
- 10.2 Australia: Giant African snail propagule pressure and establishment exposure 89
- 10.3 Australia: Giant African snail risk attributable to different exporters & commodity sectors 90
- 11 Internal storage pest: Khapra beetle (Trogoderma granarium) 93
- 11.1 Likelihoods of contamination 93
- 11.2 Australia: Khapra beetle propagule pressure 97
- 11.3 Australia: Khapra beetle risk attributable to different exporters & commodity sectors 97
- 12 Future opportunities 100
- A Posterior predictive checks for BMSB 108
- B Posterior predictive checks for Spongy moth 112
- C Posterior predictive checks for Asian honey bee 116
- D Posterior predictive checks for Giant African snail 120
- E Posterior predictive checks for Khapra beetle 124
