What Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Tells Us About Putin’s Russia

In early August, the Ukrainian army broke into Russia and, virtually undeterred, rapidly advanced seizing a significant area of the borderline region of Kursk. Given that this was the first foreign invasion of Russia since World War II, Russia’s fierce retaliation should have followed. Instead, Russian authorities pretended that this was nothing but a local crisis and a temporary setback. The reality is more complex and the implications are more serious than the Kremlin would like to admit. What is Happening in Kursk On the night of August 6, the Ukrainian Armed Forces crossed the border at Russia’s Kursk region and launched a surprise offensive on several regional towns. Within twenty-four hours the Ukrainian army advanced up to ten kilometers into Russia and reportedly captured the regional center of Sudzha. A month later, not only had they not been stopped by the Russian counteroffensive, but managed to advance further, claiming control of over 1,300 sq km in the Kursk region (other estimates range from 1,150 sq km, according to the Institute of the Study of War, and 480 sq km, according to Russian officials). Moscow’s reaction to this unprecedented development has been and remains of dual nature. On one hand, following a long-established tradition, Russian authorities maintain the appearance that the Kursk incursion is not a serious threat, but something akin to a natural disaster in a remote region. President Vladimir Putin made no public comments about the Kursk incursion for about a week after it had been launched. He only briefly spoke about it at a televised meeting with governors and military staff on August 12, demanding that the Ukrainian forces be expelled from Russia and blaming the West for what he called a “provocation.”