Hundreds of local labor markets fuel the American economy,1 and each one is driven by the needs of the local area’s mix of industries and the skills of its workers. [...] While the median level of misalignment in these local labor markets is 50 percent, one-quarter of local labor markets would need to redistribute up to 42 percent of the middle-skills credentials conferred locally to align the distribution of credentials with the distribution of projected job openings, while another one-quarter would need to redistribute more than 60 percent of middle-skills creden. [...] The regressions include first-order and second-order terms for the number of providers in operation, allowing for the relationship between the number of providers and level of misalignment to be nonlinear. [...] If providers became more individually responsive to labor-market demand in the face of stiffer competition, we would expect each institution’s credentials-to-jobs misalignment to fall, in addition to the overall level of misalignment in the local labor market, as the number of providers in the area rises. [...] These results are predicted values from regressions of misalignment at the local labor-market level on the proportion of middle-skills credentials conferred by public community colleges, the proportion of credentials conferred by less-than-two-year institutions, the proportion of credentials conferred by four-year institutions, and the total number of providers.
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- 63
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- United States of America
Table of Contents
- Acknowledgments 3
- Contents 4
- Introduction 7
- Middle-skills credential supply is greatly misaligned with projected job demand in most labor markets across the country. 8
- Urban areas have higher levels of credentials-to-jobs alignment because the mix of providers grants a more diverse set of middle-skills credentials. 10
- Racialethnic disparities in credentials-to-jobs alignment arise from differences in program provision where people live. 11
- The great misalignment suggests great opportunity for improvement. 13
- Part 1. The Problem of the Great Misalignment 15
- The occupational distribution of certificates and associates degrees conferred today does not align with future middle-skills job creation. 16
- Figure 1. More than one-quarter of all middle-skills credentials are conferred in programs of study that do not have a direct occupational match. 18
- Alignment between the current supply and the projected demand for new middle-skills credentials varies considerably across local labor markets. 19
- Table 1. The extent of middle-skills credentials-to-jobs misalignment is far more severe in Los Angeles than in Atlanta. 22
- How well do middle-skills credentials align with workforce needs in your local labor market 22
- Table 2. Four of the top 10 most-aligned local labor markets are located in Georgia. 23
- Part 2. The Urban-Rural Divide in Credentials -to- Jobs Alignment 25
- The supply of middle-skills credentials is generally more aligned to local labor demand in urban areas than in rural areas. 26
- Table 3. The rural labor market of Charlevoix Cheboygan and Emmet Counties in Michigan experiences almost 1.5 times more middle-skills credentials-to-jobs misalignment than metro Detroit. 27
- Figure 4. The average level of credentials-to-jobs misalignment nationwide is 12 percentage points greater in very rural labor markets than in very urban labor markets. 28
- Labor markets served by many middle-skills providers generally exhibit higher levels of credentials-to-jobs alignment than those served by few providers. 28
- Figure 5. The average number of providers offering middle-skills programs is 13 times greater in very urban labor markets than in very rural labor markets. 29
- Figure 6. The average level of credentials-to-jobs misalignment falls steadily as the number of providers rises. 30
- Alignment improves when multiple postsecondary institutions serve a labor market because each institutions credential production complements that of other local institutions. 30
- Direct Competition 31
- Complementarity 31
- Figure 7. On average middle-skills credentials-to-jobs misalignment is almost 50 percent greater at the institutional level than at the local labor-market level. 32
- Alignment improves with a greater mix of institutions as defined by both institutional control and primary level of credential conferred. 33
- Figure 8. Labor markets with a mix of public community colleges and for-profit or private nonprofit institutions exhibit the lowest levels of credentials-to-jobs misalignment. 34
- Part 3. RacialEthnic Gaps in Credentials-to-Jobs Alignment 37
- HispanicLatino adults are more likely than working-age adults in all other racialethnic groups to live in places with poor credentials-to-jobs alignment. 40
- Focus on alignment across institutions so investments are amplified and are not at odds or redundant. 42
- Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 42
- Improve data practices so efforts to align credential production with labor-market needs are well-informed and grounded in reality. 45
- Invest in counseling and programmatic efforts that maximize students use of data and improve their pathways to careers. 47
- Improve career preparation and transfer pathways to bachelors degree programs in fields with no direct occupational match such as those in liberal arts general studies and humanities. 49
- References 51
- Appendix A. Data Sources and Methodology 56
- 1. Data 56
- 2. Current Supply of Middle-Skills Credentials 57
- 3. Projected Demand for Middle-Skills Workers 58
- 4. Measuring Misalignment 59
- Table B1. Top five occupations available to workers with middle-skills credentials in each occupational cluster by number of projected annual openings 61
- Table B2. Distribution of middle-skills credentials conferred across occupational clusters by institutional control and primary level of credential conferred 62
