The key assumption I make is that those either side of the threshold are otherwise identical (conditionally) and thus crossing the threshold is due to arguably random factors which are not fully under the control of the individual. [...] Thus, the achieving five GCSEs A* to C threshold could be argued to have left quite a legacy on the English education system and hence I wanted to understand if this was important outside of the education, i.e., in the labour market. [...] The same principle is applied as in the previous paragraph, with those achieving X number of A* to C’s and at least one C in the treatment group and those achieving X number of A* to C and at least one D in the control group. [...] Results In this section I present the estimates of achieving five full GCSEs A* to C (my primary model) I approach this in the way I describe the mediation analysis in the previous section. [...] The effect of crossing the threshold on education outcomes age 20 can be seen in Figure A3 in the appendix and returns to these education levels can be seen in Figure A4 in the appendix.
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Table of Contents
- Disclaimer 2
- There is a small amount of literature on the effect of crossing important compulsory 3
- Using English administrative data I examine crossing an important threshold in the 3
- English education system at the end of compulsory education on early career labour 3
- I show that crossing the five GCSEs A to C threshold the one I focus on leads to 3
- The results are explained by returns to higher levels of academic education being 3
- These results show for women show that whilst crossing the threshold leads to 3
- Progress 8 is used to hold schools to account and to support parental school choice. Consequently the design and communication of Progress 8 has real- world consequences for schools and 3
- Understanding the long-term consequences of just 3
- Version updated July 2024 4
- Abstract 4
- Acknowledgements 4
- 1. Introduction 5
- 2. Background 7
- 3. Data and sample selection 9
- 3.1 Data 9
- 3.2 Sample selection 11
- 3.3 Representativeness of my sample versus wider population 12
- 4. Empirical strategy 14
- 4.1 Research design 14
- 4.2 Validity of design 16
- Table 3 descriptive statistics means GCSE results 17
- Table 5 Comparison of treatment and control group socioeconomic demographic and education factors 19
- 5. Results 21
- 5.1 Labour market outcomes 21
- 5.2 Education outcomes 22
- 5.3 Combining education and labour market outcomes 24
- 5.4 Different thresholds 28
- 5.5 Heterogeneity 31
- 5.6 Robustness checks 31
- 6. Discussion 33
- References 37
