ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LOCKDOWNS IN ITALY: A COMPUTATIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH

Given the shortage of relevant data and the urgency of the situation, parsimony therefore represents a key asset in the challenging task of modeling the impact of lockdowns. [...] We subsequently apply the estimated model to an analysis of the effects of the measures implemented in Italy in the fall and winter of 2020, as a response to the second wave of the pandemic. [...] (2020) analyse the impact of a decline in Chinese productivity on global value chains to quantify the possible impact of the lockdown measures taken in the Hubei province at the beginning of the pandemic. [...] To evaluate the magnitude of the labor shocks associated with the lockdown measures imple- mented in Italy we construct a measure of the share of labor input, for each of our 32 sectors in the 20 Italian regions, which becomes unavailable as a consequence of the government-mandated closures of specific (sub-)sectors. [...] For this purpose, we consult the series of decrees issued by the Italian prime minister during the first wave of the pandemic, which determine the timing of closures and subsequent re-openings of productive sectors in terms of the ATECO classification of economic activities at the 5 digit level of disaggregation.10 Combining this information with data on employees at the regional and 5 digit ATECO.