the militaries of the United States The Spanish Civil War was but The war in Ukraine is and its NATO and Asian allies one of the countless instances of transforming the character on the one hand, or that of the war driving military innovation. [...] The challenge Ukraine will need to accelerate the resolution of its it poses to the restoration of maneuver to the bat- mobilization problems and its supporters will need tlefield is thus very different from to accelerate the arrival of essential the largely static problem that materiel and reduce constraints on created trench warfare on the its use to set conditions for signif- Western Front in W. [...] Ukrainian forces used The fourth element of reconceptualization derives US-provided HIMARS to deprive the Russians of from the fact that Russian forces are now on the the use of the essential Antonivskyi Bridge and the offensive across virtually the roadway over the Kakhovka Dam entire front line and are not, in conjunction with Ukrainian therefore, currently focused on ground offensive operations. [...] ORG 19 UKRAINE AND THE PROBLEM OF RESTORING MANEUVER IN CONTEMPORARY WAR Consequences of the Suspension and Delayed future large-scale Russian offensive would focus, Resumption of US Military Assistance but the Russians will likely try to complete the seizure of Chasiv Yar, continue to exploit their gains The failure of the US Congress to renew military around Avdiivka, and drive toward the Donets. [...] The Russians instead deployed the divisions, brigades, and battalions nor- were able to pull forces out of the fight in other parts mally assigned to it in a cohesive and well-designed of the theater and bring them to defend against defense-in-depth.18 The 58th CAA conducted a rel- the exploitation of the Ukrainian breakthrough in atively traditional, conventional defense with two a timely fashion.
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Table of Contents
- _Hlk172906739 11
- _Hlk172909347 13
- Executive Summary 10
- Problems 11
- New Problems: Tactical Reconnaissance Strike Complex (TRSC) 12
- Introduction: The Future of War Runs through Ukraine 17
- Restoring Operational Level Maneuver Remains the Central Problem in this War 19
- Part I: What Happened in the 2023 Counteroffensive? 24
- Ukrainian Counteroffensive Campaign Design 24
- Russian Defensive Campaign Design 26
- Traditional Elastic Defense 26
- Contemporary Defensive Innovations 27
- Part II: Evaluating the 2023 Counteroffensive 29
- Two Conceptual Failures 29
- Part III: Russia Fails to Restore Maneuver to the Battlefield in Early 2024 31
- Part IV: Defining the Fundamental Problem in Warfare in Ukraine Today 35
- Approach to the Challenge 35
- Defining the Fundamental Problem 36
- The Too-Costly Penetration Battle 38
- Implications for Time-Space Relationships in Campaign Design 44
- Part V: Solutions: A New Approach to Campaign Design 45
- Neutralizing the Russian TRSC 45
- Restoring Maneuver in the Face of the Enemy TRSC 47
- Achieving Surprise on the Transparent Battlefield 51
- Reducing the Cost of Penetration Battles: Counter-Attacking into a Culminating Offensive 53
- Penetration to Exploitation 54
- Planning and Preparing for Successive Operations 55
- Integrating Long-Range Strike and Maneuver 56
- Redesigning Long-Range Strike to Support Ground Maneuver 58
- Campaign Design for a Single Penetration and Exploitation 60
- Implications for Resourcing 66
- Conclusion 67
- Appendix A: Frameworks Charts 68
- Endnotes 71
