Undaunted by this existential challenge, discussions about the “future of work” took off in 2009, as shown in Figure 1—paradoxical timing given that the biggest problem of that moment was the unnecessary absence of jobs for millions of workers who were unemployed for reasons having nothing whatsoever to do with the future of work. [...] Fourth, as much as the dignity of a job should be at the center of the economic agenda, there is only so much we know about how to advance it. [...] And yet the United States still ranks toward the bottom of the OECD in the employment rate for prime age workers, as shown in Figure 2. [...] And the right way to prepare is to better optimize our economic policies for the economy of today, ultimately ensuring their efficacy for the economy of tomorrow. [...] Jason Furman is the Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School and the Department of Economics at Harvard University.
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Table of Contents
- I have no idea what the future of work will look like. 1
- Will generative AI replace jobs Complement jobs Exacerbate inequality through skill-biased technological change Reduce inequality by competing with higher-skilled workers but not middle-skill workers 1
- American Worker Project 1
- Since then the unemployment rate has gone down up and down againwhile the discussion of the future of work has just gone up and up more. 1
- Figure 1 Frequency of Future of Work mentions in printed sources 2
- This essay makes four arguments. 2
- First solutions to the future of work are not to be found in reshaping algorithms but in reshaping economic policy. 2
- Third we should base our policies on what we know and can evaluatethe present and recent past of workrather than highly speculative guesses about the future of work. 2
- Let me now address these four points in turn. 2
- Solutions should be found in economic policy not in computer algorithms. 3
- Instead labor market policy should mostly take technology as given and instead focus on enabling people to thrive as the nature of work changes. 3
- Doing nothing is not a good solution. 3
- Figure 2 Prime-age 25-54 employment-population ratio 2022 Q3 4
- We should base our policies on the recent past and present of work. 4
- Figure 3 Prime age employment rate by education level 5
- What exactly does it mean to better educate future workers 6
- Figure 4 Public expenditure on labor market policies as a percent of GDP 6
- Redistribution may have an increasingly important role to play. 7
