Taiwan returned the boat and bodies and paid compensation to the families but did not admit fault in the collision.[12] The February 14 capsizing incident was the trigger event for an organized and ongoing PRC effort, led by the CCG, to contest Taiwan’s control of the waters around Kinmen and other outlying Taiwanese islands. [...] The PRC released four of the boat’s crew members on August 13, a week after releasing the fisherman Hu, but continues to hold the boat’s captain and the boat itself 8 Copyright© Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Coalition Defense of Taiwan, 2024 for further investigation.[21] The incident was the first time the PRC had detained a Taiwanese vessel in 17 years. [...] Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Administration (CAA) said the unilateral adjustment of the M503 route and the addition of the new connecting routes posed a danger to air traffic in the area.[40] The PRC’s TAO denied that there were any security concerns about the new flight routes and also denied the existence of a median line in the Taiwan Strait.[41] 11 Copyright© Institute for the Study of War and the. [...] The association collected enough signatures in September 2023 to kickstart the process of initiating a formal referendum.[54] The TAO expressed its support for the Kinmen-based association’s efforts on September 27, and used the opportunity to talk up the potential benefits and improvements to the standard of living that could be realized by pursuing the wider Cross-Strait Integration Development. [...] However, the CCG is the primary driver of the effort to send the message that these patrols are legitimate law enforcement activities and that the PRC has the legal jurisdiction and responsibility to patrol in Kinmen’s waters.
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Table of Contents
- China-Taiwan Special Edition Update August 21 2024 1
- Authors Matthew Sperzel and Daniel Shats of the Institute for the Study of War 1
- Alexis Turek of the American Enterprise Institute 1
- Editors Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute 1
- Data Cutoff August 14 2024 1
- Key Takeaways 1
- 2 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 2
- Introduction 2
- Background 2
- 3 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 3
- 4 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 4
- 5 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 5
- 6 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 6
- Line of Effort LOE Maritime incursions 6
- 7 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 7
- 8 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 8
- LOE Law enforcement actions against Taiwanese vessels 8
- Da Jin Man 88 8
- 9 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 9
- Da Jin Man 88 9
- 10 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 10
- LOE Aerial activities 10
- 11 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 11
- 12 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 12
- LOE Economic integration 12
- 13 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 13
- 14 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 14
- Scenario A Short-of-War Seizure of Kinmen 14
- Stage 1 Escalating law enforcement activities around Kinmen 14
- 15 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 15
- Stage 2 Testing the ROCs military response 15
- 16 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 16
- Stage 3 Quarantining Kinmen 16
- 17 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 17
- Stage 4 Taiwan concedes 17
- 18 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 18
- CCP Decision Calculus 18
- 19 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 19
- 20 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 20
- Implications for the United States 20
- 21 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 21
- Pre-emptive measures 21
- 22 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 22
- Increase the resiliency and capacity of offshore islands communication infrastructure. 22
- Develop a Taiwanese merchant marine force. 22
- Selective Intelligence Disclosures. 22
- Reaffirm Taiwans rights. 22
- Targeted domestic information campaigns. 22
- Establish a larger CGA presence around Kinmen. 22
- 23 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 23
- Create a joint US-Taiwan course of action to defend Taiwanese sovereignty. 23
- Coordinated information campaigns clarifying the nature of the CCG. 23
- Reactive measures 23
- Coordinate information campaigns condemning CCG actions. 23
- Convey to the PRC the costs associated with forcibly taking Taiwanese territory. 23
- Use messaging to impose economic costs on Xiamen and beyond. 23
- 24 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 24
- Counter PRC cyberwarfare. 24
- Coordinate allied military response. 24
- Effectively counter PRC sea and air control. 24
- Impose sanctions. 24
- 25 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 25
- Emphasize the risk of establishing Kinmen as a peace island. 25
- Measures to deter future PRC aggression 25
- Amend relevant US laws to help protect Taiwans outlying islands. 25
- Conduct joint coast guard operations. 25
- Increase US support for the Taiwanese military. 25
- Increase Taiwanese troop presence on all offshore islands. 25
- Conclusion 25
- 26 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 26
- 27 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 27
- 28 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 28
- 29 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 29
- 30 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 30
- 31 Copyright Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institutes Coalition Defense of Taiwan 2024 31