Nasrallah is extremely unlikely to give the order to cease Hezbollah rocket attacks into northern Israel because he must continue to support his partners in the Axis of Resistance, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.[5] Continuing to fire rockets into Israel increases the risk of war, given the stated Israeli aim to return its civilians to their homes in northern Israel. [...] Most of the rocket fire that Israel has historically intercepted close to the West Bank has come from the Gaza Strip to the west, rather than from the north. [...] 6 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, 2024 Gaza Strip Axis of Resistance objectives: • Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip • Reestablish Hamas as the governing. [...] Israeli intelligence officials assess that Sinwar did not write the messages himself.[38] The messages include Sinwar’s congratulatory message to the president of Algeria and a message addressed to the Houthis.[39] Israeli Army Radio reported that Israeli officials believe that another Hamas official wrote the messages on Sinwar’s behalf.[40] 9 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the Am. [...] The militia member added that the Axis of Resistance has “one operations room from Iraq all the way to Yemen.”[63] The militia member was likely referencing the joint operations room that senior Axis of Resistance officials established in the summer of 2023 to coordinate attacks against Israel.[64] CTP-ISW has reported on increased coordination and cooperation between Axis of Resistance groups in.
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Table of Contents
- Johanna Moore Kelly Campa Annika Ganzeveld Siddhant Kishore 1
- Carolyn Moorman Ben Rezaei Ria Reddy and Brian Carter 1
- Information Cutoff September 23 2024 200pm ET 1
- Israel set new war objectives for Lebanon on September 16. Accomplishing these objectives would require the IDF to undertake a second major military campaign in Lebanon as part of the October 7 War. 1
- Hezbollah will therefore probably continue its indirect fire into northern Israel despite the ongoing Israeli air campaign. 2
- The IDF conducted an airstrike on September 23 targeting the commander of Hezbollahs southern front Ali Karaki in Dahiya neighborhood Beirut according to sources in the IDF.9 2
- The IDF reported on September 23 that it struck over 800 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and is preparing to strike targets in the Bekaa Valley.13 2
- Lebanese Hezbollah expanded the depth of its attack campaign against Israeli civilians by targeting Israeli settlements in the West Bank on September 23 3
- Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said on September 23 that the Masoud Pezeshkian administration is willing to resume nuclear negotiations.21 5
- Key Takeaways 5
- Lebanon 5
- Israeli Air Campaign in Lebanon 5
- Hezbollah Attack Campaign in Israel 5
- Nuclear Negotiations 5
- Gaza Strip 5
- Iraq 6
- Gaza Strip 7
- Axis of Resistance objectives 7
- Multiple Palestinian militias conducted attacks targeting Israeli forces near the Netzarim Corridor on September 23.29 7
- The IDF Air Force struck a Hamas command-and-control center in a former school in Nuseirat central Gaza Strip on September 22.32 7
- Hamas fighters detonated improvised explosive devices IED and fired rocket-propelled grenades RPG targeting IDF armor east of Rafah City on September 23. 7
- Hamas has published and attributed several messages to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in recent weeks. Israeli intelligence officials assess that Sinwar did not write the messages himself. 9
- West Bank 10
- Axis of Resistance objectives 10
- The IDF thwarted a stabbing attack at an IDF airbase near Beit Guvrin on September 23.41 10
- The IDF detained nine wanted persons across the West Bank on September 23.45 10
- Hamas called on Palestinians in the West Bank to defend the al Aqsa Mosque against Israeli settler incursions in the coming days.49 10
- Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISWs last data cutoff on September 22.52 10
- This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank. 11
- Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights 12
- Axis of Resistance objectives 12
- Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least 13 attacks into northern Israel since CTP- ISWs last data cutoff on September 22.55 12
- Iran and the Axis of Resistance 12
- The Islamic Resistance in Iraqa coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militiasclaimed a drone attack targeting an IDF Golani Brigade observation post on September 22.59 12
- Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militants conducted an attack targeting US forces at al Shaddadi in Hasakah Province Syria on September 22.67 12
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian traveled to New York on September 22 to attend the United Nations General Assembly UNGA.72 12
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps IRGC Aerospace Force unveiled the Jihad ballistic missile during an annual military parade in Tehran on September 21.77 13
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khameneis son Mojtaba Khamenei canceled his seminary course on September 22.81 13
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasized the need for Islamic countries to unite against Israel during a meeting with ambassadors from unspecified Islamic countries on September 21. 13
- An explosion occurred at the Tabas coal mine in South Khorasan Province Iran on September 21 killing over 50 miners. Efforts to rescue 17 trapped miners are ongoing. 13
- Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Senior Adviser for Policy Ali Asghar Khaji met with Chinese Special Envoy to the Middle East Zhai Jun in Tehran on September 23 to discuss regional developments.89 13
