DECARBONIZATION CHALLENGES: BIG AND YOUNG BLAST FURNACES Since the 2023 release of the GBFT, the average size of The average age of operating blast furnaces in the GBFT with operating blast furnaces has increased. [...] Of the top ten countries with the The average size of retired blast furnaces tracked by GEM most operating BF capacity, the United States has the oldest is 840 m3 while the average size of blast furnaces under operating fleet with an average age of 73 years, and China development is 1,900 m3, indicating that the industry is has the youngest operating fleet with an average age of trending towards b. [...] is methane-based due to the abundance of cheap UPDATES ON THE NET ZERO TRANSITION The shift toward a carbon neutral iron and steel Understanding developing and retiring iron and steel industry is multi-pronged and generally involves technologies is a critical measure of the industry tran- the replacement of coal-based BF-BOF capacity sition, and GEM’s tracking illuminates distinct differ- with hyd. [...] As a member of the G7 and the ating BF capacity, 38 mtpa of operating BOF capacity, European Union, Germany is part of some of the most <1 mtpa of operating DRI capacity, and 13 mtpa of ambitious emissions reduction goals, although plans operating EAF capacity. [...] The lack of net zero targets 5 mtpa of operating BOF capacity, 42 mtpa of operat- in the country and the abundance of cheap methane ing DRI, and 40 mtpa of operating EAF capacity.
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Table of Contents
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
- ACRONYMS 4
- INTRODUCTION 5
- SECTOR EMISSIONS 6
- GLOBAL STATE OF OPERATING IRON AND STEEL 6
- Global steelmaking capacity 6
- China leads global steel production capacity with the majority from emissions-intensive coal- based technologies 7
- Global ironmaking capacity 8
- China has most global iron production capacity with almost all from emissions-intensive coal-based technologies 9
- UPDATES ON THE NET ZERO TRANSITION 10
- Progress in iron and steelmaking capacity with lower-emissions technologies but new coal-based capacity poses decarbonization concern 10
- Steelmaking capacity developments 11
- India has more steel capacity in development but China currently building more 11
- Net zero target for steelmaking could be within reach 12
- Sharp rise in share of new steelmaking plans with lower-emissions technologies 13
- Ironmaking capacity developments 14
- The majority of ironmaking capacity both operating and in-development uses emissions-intensive technologies 14
- New coal-based blast furnace development continues alongside growing development of direct reduced iron capacity 15
- Developing direct reduced iron capacity is broadly distributed across 30 countries 16
- Majority of ironmaking capacity in development in China and India uses emissions- intensive coal-based technologies 17
- Overcapacity 17
- Stranded asset risk 18
- COUNTRY PROFILES 19
- China 19
- Majority of operating steelmaking capacity in China uses emissions-intensive coal- based technologies 19
- Almost all operating ironmaking capacity in China uses emissions-intensive coal-based technologies 20
- India 20
- Majority of operating and developing steelmaking in India uses emissions-intensive coal-based technologies 21
- Majority of operating and developing ironmaking in India uses emissions-intensive coal-based technologies 21
- Japan 22
- All developing steelmaking in Japan uses lower-emissions technologies but operating capacity is still heavily coal-based 22
- All operating ironmaking in Japan uses emissions-intensive coal-based technologies 23
- United States 23
- All developing steelmaking in the United States uses electric arc furnace but little coal-based capacity is being retired 24
- All developing ironmaking in the United States is direct reduced iron but plans have not moved into construction yet 24
- Russia 25
- All developing steelmaking in Russia is lower-emissions electric arc furnace capacity 25
- Developing Russian ironmaking is primarily direct reduced iron but emissions-intensive coal-based blast furnace capacity still planned 26
- South Korea 26
- All developing steelmaking in South Korea is electric arc furnace capacity 27
- All planned ironmaking in South Korea is direct reduced iron capacity 27
- Germany 27
- All developing steelmaking in Germany is electric arc furnace capacity but planned capacity not yet under construction 28
- No new blast furnace capacity developing in Germany but plans for direct reduced iron not yet in construction 28
- Türkiye 29
- Majority of operating and all developing steelmaking in Türkiye is lower-emissions electric arc furnace capacity 29
- No developing ironmaking in Türkiye all operating ironmaking relies on emissions- intensive coal-based blast furnaces 29
- Brazil 30
- All developing steelmaking in Brazil uses electric arc furnaces but operating steelmaking primarily uses basic oxygen furnaces 30
- All operating and announced ironmaking in Brazil relies on emissions-intensive coal- based blast furnaces 31
- Iran 31
- Operating and developing steelmaking in Iran primarily uses lower-emissions electric arc furnaces 32
- Operating and developing ironmaking in Iran is primarily direct reduced iron 32
- APPENDIX A 33
- Main steel production pathways 33
- APPENDIX B 34
- Average emissions and energy intensities of main steelmaking pathways 34
- APPENDIX C 35
- Operating steelmaking capacity by countryarea and production process 35
- Operating steelmaking capacity by countryarea and production process 36
- APPENDIX D 37
- Operating ironmaking capacity by countryarea and production process 37
- Operating ironmaking capacity by countryarea and production process 38
- APPENDIX E 39
- Steel capacity under development by technology type 39
- Steel capacity under development by technology type 40
- APPENDIX F 41
- Iron capacity under development by technology type 41
- Iron capacity under development by technology type 42
