jeopardy.” Among the conditions that make it The role of nuclear weapons possible for Russia to employ nuclear weapons are the arrival of reliable Invocations of Russia’s nuclear weapons began on data on the launch of ballistic missiles the first day of the full-scale invasion. [...] 64 “Statement by the Delegation of the Russian Federation at the First Session of the Preparatory Committee for the 11th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Cluster 1: Nuclear Disarmament), Vienna, August 3, 2023,” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Aug. [...] 67 “Nuclear Weapons Have Come to the Fore Again.” 68 “Statement by the Deputy Head of the Delegation of the Russian Federation at the Tenth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Cluster 1: Nuclear Disarmament),” Aug. [...] authorities to engage in preventive and proactive These roles include the following: actions with the support of powerful military y The ability of the navy to engage in power potential and the wide information opportunities projection in “numerous key European for the formation of the necessary international and Asian industrial centers, playing an authority and the indisputable military and poli. [...] These statements and the context of the collapse of the arms control revisions, in the words of the authors, would be architecture, NATO’s expansion closer to Russia’s aimed at borders, and the entrenched hostility in Russia’s relations with the West.
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Table of Contents
- Introduction 9
- Theoretical framework 10
- Describing key stakeholder communities 11
- Methodology 12
- Exploring potential changes to Russia’s nuclear policy and posture 14
- Russian Political Leadership 15
- Role and effectiveness of nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine war 16
- The role of nuclear weapons 16
- Effectiveness 21
- Declaratory nuclear policy 22
- Nuclear employment 22
- Arms control 24
- Nuclear posture 25
- Capabilities 25
- Employment plans 26
- C2 arrangements 28
- Military Analyst Perspectives 29
- Declaratory nuclear policy 30
- Role of nuclear weapons in strategic deterrence 30
- Declaratory policy 33
- Arms control 36
- Nuclear posture 36
- Employment plans and capabilities 36
- Signaling 38
- C2 arrangements 41
- Civilian Expert Perspectives 42
- Role and effectiveness of nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine war 43
- Declaratory nuclear policy 45
- Nuclear use 45
- Arms control and strategic stability 48
- Nuclear posture 49
- Capabilities 49
- Employment plans 51
- C2 arrangements 52
- Summary and Implications 53
- Summary of key themes 53
- Consensus on mixed success of nuclear threats 53
- Limited nuclear employment is divisive 53
- Debates about continuity and change in policy and posture 54
- Tracking the discussions 57
- Implications for the US and allied forces 58
- Appendix: Key Concepts 61
- Abbreviations 63
- References 64
