Using results from a literature review; expert discussions; operational, technical, and strategic modeling; and case studies, the authors evaluate the utility the U.S. Air Force (USAF) might get from electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, how much influence the USAF has on technical development and supply chains, and options to transition emerging commercial technology to the USAF to recommend an eVTOL strategy for the USAF.
Authors
Brown, Jeffrey S., Cochran, Shawn, Litterer, Sydney, Goldfeld, Dahlia Anne, Mignano, Jim, McBirney, Samantha, Hastings Roer, Elizabeth, Villegas, Carlos A., Mayer, Lauren A., Mason, Richard
- Division
- RAND Project AIR FORCE Force Modernization and Employment Program
- Pages
- 170
- Published in
- United States
- RAND Identifier
- RR-A1524-2
- RAND Type
- report
- Rights
- RAND Corporation
- Series
- Research Reports
- Source
- https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1524-2.html
Table of Contents
- Amping Airpower Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing for the U.S. Air Force 1
- About This Report 3
- RAND Project AIR FORCE 3
- Acknowledgments 3
- Summary 5
- Background 5
- Approach 5
- Key Findings 5
- Recommendations 6
- Contents 7
- Figures and Tables 9
- Figures 9
- Tables 10
- Introduction 11
- Research Approach 15
- Assessing Current and Future eVTOL Technology and Commercial Business Plans 15
- Modeling eVTOL Aircraft Military Utility to USAF Use Cases 16
- Evaluating USAF Influence on eVTOL Market 16
- Strategizing How the USAF Should Proceed with eVTOL 17
- Transition Mechanisms 17
- Strengths and Limitations of This Approach 17
- Organization of This Report 18
- 2022 Market Overview and Future Projections 20
- Surveying the eVTOL Market by Platform Design 21
- Surveying eVTOL Market by Investment Data 22
- Commercial Business Cases 23
- Passenger Movement 24
- Cargo Movement 24
- 2022 eVTOL Aircraft Capabilities and Limitations 24
- Other Factors for Commercial Success 28
- Infrastructure Requirements 28
- Safety Aircraft Certifications Air Traffic Control and Other Commercialization Factors 30
- Pilot Training 31
- Future eVTOL Capabilities 31
- Past Work 37
- Our Findings of Operational Community Perspectives on eVTOL Aircraft 37
- Surface Transport at the Nevada Test and Training Range 39
- Reducing Travel Times for Nevada Test and Training Range Operations with eVTOL Aircraft 40
- Commuting via eVTOL Could Improve Site Operator Quality of Life and Retention Rates but at High Cost 41
- Electric Infrastructure at USAF Sites in and Around the NTTR 41
- Missile Field Support Transportation 42
- New eVTOL-Enabled Concepts of Operation for Malmstrom AFB 45
- Electric Infrastructure for the eVTOL Enabled CONOP 46
- Quantitative Analysis of eVTOL Use by Roaming Security Teams 46
- Quantitative Analysis of On-Demand Movement of Maintenance Personnel to and from Silos 47
- Quantitative Analysis of eVTOL Use to Conduct Monthly Silo Inspections 48
- Agile Combat Employment 49
- General Considerations for eVTOL Charging in Agile Combat Employment 49
- Isolated eVTOL Infrastructure 50
- Notional ACE Scenarios We Modeled 51
- Major Command Support Today 54
- Initial Conclusions 55
- To What Extent Do USAF Technical and Supply Chain Requirements Overlap with Those of the Commercial Market 57
- Technical Specifications 58
- Secure Supply Chain 58
- Reliable Supply 58
- Summary of Overlap Between the USAF and the Commercial Market 59
- What Is the Proportion of USAF Demand Relative to the Commercial Market 60
- Commercial Versus Military Demand Forecasts 61
- Implications of Low Market Share for the USAF 63
- Where Will eVTOL Supply Chains Be Located 64
- Pros and Cons of Domestic Production 65
- Using the Automotive Industry as a Proxy for eVTOL Aircraft 66
- Geography of Technology Integration and Final Assembly 67
- Geography of Material and Component Supply Chains 68
- Implications of Supply Chain Geography 71
- A Strategic Approach to Future USAF Engagement with eVTOL Technology 73
- A Strategic Framework for Commercial Technology Opportunities 73
- Scenario A High Military Value Low Market Sensitivity to Military Investment 76
- Scenario B High Military Value High Market Sensitivity to Military Investment 77
- Scenario C Low Military Value High Market Sensitivity to Military Investment 77
- Scenario D Low Military Value Low Market Sensitivity to Military Investment 78
- How Does eVTOL Technology Rate on the Military Value Scale for the USAF 78
- Will eVTOL Transform Military Operations in the Future 80
- How Does the eVTOL Market Rate on the Sensitivity Scale 82
- How Does the eVTOL Market Compare with the sUAS Market 83
- Implications for Agility Prime 85
- The Prime Model Is Not a Good Fit for the Commercial eVTOL Market but Shows Promise for Other Commercial Technology Opportunities 86
- Options to Transition eVTOL Technology to the Warfighter 89
- Options to Transition Emerging Commercial Technologies to the Warfighter 90
- Transition Routes by Sponsoring Organization 92
- Barriers to Transitioning Emerging Commercial Technologies 94
- Noteworthy Transition Mechanisms 95
- Feasible Transition Routes for eVTOL Technology 96
- Begin with Sponsor Capability Entry A 96
- Begin with Small-Scale Purchase Entry B 96
- Begin with Prototyping or Experimentation Entry C or D 97
- Applying Experimentation and Prototyping Lessons to eVTOL Technology 97
- Implementing a Survey-the-Market Approach 99
- Improving DoD Acquisition Processes for Commercial Technology 101
- Transition Conclusions 101
- Findings and Recommendations 103
- Major Findings 103
- Utility of eVTOL Technology for USAF Is Unclear 104
- USAF May Have Difficulties Acquiring eVTOL Aircraft with Defense- Specific Requirements 106
- A Survey-the-Market Approach Is Most Appropriate for eVTOL 107
- Recommendations 107
- Recommendations for Agility Prime Engagement with Other Military and Government Entities 110
- General Emerging Technology Recommendations to the USAF 111
- Conclusion 112
- Previous USAF Analysis of eVTOL Utility 113
- Innovative Capability Opening 113
- Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration 114
- USAF Fellows Report 114
- Stakeholder Input 116
- Operational Community Perspectives 117
- Other Platform Cost and Capability Assumptions 122
- Electric Infrastructure Cost Data 126
- Use Case Assessment 128
- Calculating eVTOL Aircraft Utility 128
- Identify Vehicle Travel Routes 128
- Calculating Distance and Travel Times 129
- Use Cases 130
- Nevada Test and Training Range 131
- Missile Field Support 133
- Agile Combat Employment 136
- Emerging Technology Case Studies 141
- Palletized Munitions 141
- Robotic Combat Vehicles 142
- MQ-1 Predator 143
- Blue sUAS 144
- Falcon 9 Spacelift 146
- Case Alignment with Routes to Transition Emerging Commercial Technologies to the Warfighter 148
- Transition Mechanisms 149
- Abbreviations 151
- References 154
