Cen t r e o f Exce l l en ce f o r B i o se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s CEBRA 17062102: Marine Pest Structural Risk Model Final Report Andrew Robinson, CEBRA, The University of Melbourne Michael Ormsby, The Ministry for Primary Industries, New Zealand November 3, 2023 Contents Table of Contents 1 List of Figures 2 List of Tables 3 Executive Summary 4 List of Recommendations. [...] 7 1.3.1 Likelihood module description. [...] 8 1.4 Risk–return model: consequences module for marine pests. [...] 10 1.4.1 Consequences module description. [...] 11 2 Likelihood module fitting 13 2.1 Raw exposure on pathways.
- Pages
- 85
- Published in
- Australia
Table of Contents
- Table of Contents 1
- List of Figures 1
- List of Tables 1
- Executive Summary 5
- List of Recommendations 5
- Introduction 7
- Background 7
- Parameterisation: Structured Expert Judgement 7
- Risk–return model: likelihood module 8
- Likelihood module description 9
- Risk–return model: consequences module for marine pests 11
- Consequences module description 12
- Likelihood module fitting 14
- Raw exposure on pathways 14
- Interventions 14
- Pathway risk estimates 15
- Module check using border interceptions 15
- Establishment after arrival 16
- Module check using detected establishments 18
- Consequences module fitting 19
- Incursion size at time of detection 19
- Estimated cost of eradication 20
- Model inputs 20
- Incursion impact: cost of management if not eradicated 22
- Consequences module outputs 22
- Outputs 24
- Results 24
- Discussion 24
- Caveats 25
- Interpretation 26
- Conclusions 26
- Bibliography 27
- Phase 1 conference call 28
- Phase 2 workshop 31
- Workshop minutes 31
- SEJ questions and specific notes 32
- Workshop debrief 36
- SEJ results 39
- Review by Biofouling Solutions 56
