The Yemen war that erupted in 2015 has delivered a series of blows to U.S. and partner interests in the Middle East and beyond. The war solidified the power of the Houthis, who the United States is now battling in the largest naval battle since World War II, and who will likely pose an enduring threat to regional stability and maritime commerce. While the United States currently lacks good policy options for countering the Houthi threat, it had opportunities to help prevent the Yemen war in the first place but failed to take advantage of them, even though doing so would have been far less costly for the United States. This paper uses a counterfactual analysis to identify three windows of opportunity the United States had to prevent or mitigate the Yemen war between 2011 and 2015, and assesses why the United States failed to seize those opportunities. These three windows included:
Authors
- Pages
- 48
- Published in
- United States of America
Table of Contents
- Yemen paper final4.pdf 1
- Yemen paper final 1
- Yemen paper final.pdf 1
- Yemen cover.pdf 1
- How the US Could Have Prevented pdf.pdf 2
- Introduction 4
- Background on Yemen 7
- U.S. policy on Yemen 2011-2015 9
- Approach for assessing U.S. influence 12
- Identifying alternative scenarios 15
- Yemen counterfactual assessment 18
- 2011 counterfactual 18
- Background and observed U.S. policy in 2011 18
- Steps necessary to pursue the counterfactual in 2011 20
- BOX 1: Illustrative steps necessary for the U.S. to pursue the counterfactual policy approach in 2011: 23
- 2014 counterfactual 24
- Background and observed U.S. policy in 2014 24
- Steps necessary to pursue the counterfactual in 2014 27
- 2015 counterfactual 29
- Background and observed U.S. policy in 2015 29
- Steps necessary to pursue the counterfactual in 2015 33
- Learning from the Yemen case: Reforms to unlock more effective prevention and the role of the GFA 35
- Table 1. Summary of GFA impact on U.S. windows of opportunity to shape the Yemen conflict 37
- Learning and adaptation 38
- Stronger interagency coordination 41
- Longer-term planning 43
- Role of foreign assistance 44
- Conclusions 46
- Yemen paper final4 48
- Yemen paper final 48
- Yemen paper final 48
