PRESENTATION OF THE POLITICAL AND GEOSTRATEGIC OBSERVATORY OF THE UNITED STATES Under the direction of Romuald Sciora, Associate Research Fellow at IRIS, the IRIS Political and Geostrategic Observatory of the United States aims to shed light on the presidential and legislative elections of 2024 and on developments in the contemporary United States, in particular their impact on Franco-American coo. [...] The Academy of Political Science, founded by Columbia University in New York, the Columbia-SIPA Urban and Social Policy Program and the Raoul- Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the Université du Québec à Montréal, are the Observatoire’s main academic partners. [...] Given that the majority of Canadian exports are destined for the United States, and that the health of the Canadian economy is heavily dependent on access to the American market, Trump’s economic nationalism would remain Canada’s biggest challenge if he regained the presidency3. [...] Trump may well take advantage of the moment when the US, Canada and Mexico will have the opportunity to request revisions to the agreement (date set for July 1, 2026), to try to obtain new trade concessions from Canada to the benefit of American workers4. [...] In recent years, however, the growing number of asylum seekers in Canada has prompted debate among Canadians about the country’s ability to offer them the services and living conditions they need, particularly in the context of the housing shortage and rising rent prices that plague many Canadian cities12.
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Table of Contents
- 1 1 - N O T E 1
- Frédérick Gagnon 1
- Full Professor of Political Science 1
- Université du Québec à Montréal 1
- Frédérick Gagnon 2
- Full Professor of Political Science Université du Québec à Montréal 2
- IRIS - All rights reserved 2
- Academy of Political Science Columbia-SIPA Urban and Social Policy Program Raoul- Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the Université du Québec à Montréal 2
- While polls have shown for months that Donald Trump is the favorite to win the White House 3
- Given that the majority of Canadian exports are destined for the United States and that the 3
- Trumps economic nationalism would remain Canadas biggest challenge if he regained the 3
- During his first term Trump often claimed that trade with Canada was hurting American 3
- US denounced Canadas trade barriers as hurting Wisconsin farmers and demanded the 3
- These negotiations led to the signing of the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement 3
- USMCA in which Canada had to make concessions notably by granting American farmers 3
- Joe Biden has also shown economic nationalism towards Canada since January 2021 in 3
- On his campaign website for example Trump promises to convince the US Congress to pass 4
- Another peculiarity of Trumps policy is that he doesnt hesitate to use these same tariffs to 4
- Canada recently announced that it would be increasing its military spending over the next few 4
- Trumps promises on migration and border issues also illustrate just how decisive November 4
- 5 could be for Canada. With some 11 million undocumented migrants currently on US soil 4
- Trump plans to carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history . 4
- Given that undocumented migrants often come from countries where their personal safety 4
- Canada often projects the image of a multicultural society and a welcoming country for 5
- Canadas future often depends in large part on the direction taken by its key ally. 5