Focussing on the channels of employment and savings, the study considers how the effects of care vary over the life course, and with the time that episodes of care are encountered. [...] Data reported in the bottom half of 13 Table 2.1 indicate that the incidence of social care reported for people aged 65 and over is very similar between the Health Survey for England (HSE) and the Understanding Society study (UKHLS), both of which tend to exceed the incidence of social care reported by the FRS. [...] Similarly, supply of childcare can vary, among a variety of features, by the proximity and strength of social ties in the case of informal care, by the prevalence of childcare providers in the case of formal care, and by ancillary parental time commitments. [...] 38 preferences implies that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is (approximately) equal to the inverse of relative risk aversion, suggesting a value for γ in the region of 2.0.25 Given the assumed value for γ, α (utility price of leisure) was adjusted to match the model to the proportion of people aged 18 to 74 who were reported by the UKHLS to be not employed in 2019. [...] In this regard, the current analysis takes a “conservative” approach designed to dampen the projected size of the care gap by projecting recipients of social care in a way that is biassed toward those projected to need care.28 This approach also reflects the survey design of the UKHLS data that are the primary basis for parameterising the model (see discussion in Section 2.2.1).
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Table of Contents
- CeMPA WP 724 1
- Justin van de Ven 1
- Patryk Bronka 1
- Matteo Richiardi 1
- October 2024 1
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1
- Abstract 2
- 1 Introduction 3
- 2 Statistical Background 5
- 2.1 Childcare 6
- 2.2 Social Care 11
- 3 Modelling Care 29
- 3.1 Overview of SimPaths 29
- 3.2 Simulating childcare 32
- Influence of public transfers 33
- 3.3 Simulating social care 34
- Discussion of regression estimates 35
- Influence of public transfers 37
- 3.4 Simulating forward-looking behaviour 38
- 3.5 Limitations of the modelling approach 41
- 4 Results 42
- 4.1 Projections for care during the prospective half century 42
- 4.2 Effects of care during the life course 52
- 5 Conclusions 56
- References 58
- Appendix A Data Sources 60
- A.1 Living Costs and Food Survey LCF 60
- A.2 Family Resources Survey FRS 61
- A.3 Health Survey for England HSE 62
- A.4 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings ASHE 62
- A.5 UK Household Longitudinal Survey Understanding Society 63
- UKHLS 63
- Addressing data observed at two-year intervals 65
- Strategies to address non-representativeness of UKHLS 66
- A.6 Econometric estimates for the elasticity of labour supply 68
- Appendix B Statistical Background 70
- B.1 Childcare 70
- B.2 Social care 81
- Appendix C Regression Statistics 83
- C.1 Childcare 83
- C.2 Social care 85
- Appendix D Dynamic programming methods 104
- D.1 ManagerPopulateGrids 108
- D.2 ManagerSolveGrids 108
- D.3 ManagerSolveState 109
- D.4 ManagerFileGrids 113
- Appendix E Walk-through of Analysis 114
- Appendix F Supplementary Analytical Statistics 117
- F.1 Projections for care during the prospective half-century 117
