The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and…
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Table of Contents
- Imagining the Trump presidency 2
- Ukraine Minsk 3.0 4
- Donald Trump seems to hate Ukraine almost as much as he admires Vladimir Putin. He blames the 4
- Trumps first-term outreach to North Korea. The president would likely expect Europeans to fall in 5
- China Crisis in the South China Sea 7
- A core consensus on China has emerged within the Republican Party. All three Republican camps 8
- But pressures within the Republican party and in Congress as well as the available personnel mean 8
- Strategic industrial policy Total energy dominance 11
- Trump announced the United States withdrawal from the US from the Paris climate agreement in 12
- 2017 in an early demonstration of his hostility to climate action. His point of view was that this 12
- India gained an advantage. This time around Trump has promised to slash regulations limiting the 12
- European security NATOs slumber 15
- Foreign policy thinkers in Trumps orbit have set out proposals to adapt NATO to a reduced 15
- American presence in Europe. For both the restrainers and the prioritisers a weakened commitment 15
- The Middle East and North Africa Making Israel great 18
- Abraham accords that established diplomatic relations between Israel and some of its Arab 19
- Ideology The global alliance of peoples and nations 22
- For Republican restrainers and not coincidentally for Trump himself re-invigorating nationalism at 23
- What the scenarios mean 25
- About the authors 28
- Acknowledgements 28
