In the UK, the aftermath of the Brexit referendum of 2016 has been intense, questions of economic impact and the future of Northern Ireland to the fore amidst tumultuous politics seeing six Prime Ministers in just over eight years. [...] Where the UK has failed to come to terms with the implications of Brexit for trade, the Commission has struggled for a model to manage the complexity and dynamism of the UK relationship going forward. [...] 17/2024 With the return of EU-coordination to the UK Cabinet OfÏce, the two sides should have similar structures with a political lead seeking to shape and implement the relationship. [...] That applies in the EU context, and like the UK the bloc is also struggling to reconcile competitiveness and the net— zero transition. [...] Some in the UK have long seen the EU as likely to fragment, and the results of the 2024 European elections were the latest evidence for their theory.
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Table of Contents
- INTRODUCTION 3
- PART 1 THE PAST 4
- Different UK negotiating approaches since 2016 4
- Consensus model of EU-Third Country negotiations 6
- Not just about the governments 8
- PART 2 THE PRESENT 9
- The unmanageable negotiation 9
- Rebuilding relations after divorce 12
- EU-Labour Party negotiations effectively started in July 2022 13
- Global difficulties may help UK EU relations a little 15
- PART 3 THE FUTURE 16
- There is no stable UK-EU relationship 16
- EU developments are unlikely to help 17
- Learning to live with uncertainty 18
- CONCLUSION THERE IS NO CONCLUSION TO UK-EU RELATIONS BUT A SHARED UNDERSTANDING WILL HELP 19
