• ISET-PI forecasts Georgia's economy to grow by 7.9% in the third quarter and 6.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. [...] However, according to our model, variables related to the national and foreign currency deposits still had a slight negative contribution to the real GDP growth forecast according to our model. [...] During this period, the import of goods increased by 7.2% year-over-year, driven by an annual increase in the import/re-import petroleum and petroleum oils (increased by 24% YoY), medicaments put up in measured doses (increased by 19% YoY), and automatic data processing machines and units thereof (increased by 350% YoY). [...] The depreciation of the Georgian Lari negatively impacts the Georgian population due to heavy reliance on imports and significant levels of debt dollarization (a notable portion of businesses having income and liabilities in different currencies). [...] The last forecast (the 5th vintage) is published in the first month of the next quarter.
Authors
- Pages
- 4
- Published in
- Georgia
Table of Contents
- Page 1 1
- LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA SEPTEMBER 2024 1
- Authors Tornike Surguladze and Davit Keshelava 1
- ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Here are the highlights of this months release. 1
- HIGHLIGHTS 1
- Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024 which 1
- ISET-PI forecasts Georgias economy to grow by 7.9 in the third quarter and 6.4 in the 1
- Based on July data the annual growth in 2024 is expected to be 8.1. 1
- Page 2 2
- LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA SEPTEMBER 2024 2
- VARIABLES INFLUENCING THE GDP GROWTH FORECAST BASED ON THE JULY DATA 2
- National and Foreign Currency Deposits. total foreign currency deposits increased by 13.4 compared to the same month of the previous year. 2
- However according to our model variables related to the national and foreign currency deposits still had a slight negative contribution to the real GDP growth forecast according to our model. 2
- Merchandise Trade. In July Georgias exports experienced a 29.9 annual increase. 2
- During this period the import of goods increased by 7.2 year-over-year Consequently the trade deficit decreased by 7 year-over- year amounting to 735 million USD. 2
- Overall trade-related variables had a slight positive influence on the GDP growth forecast. 2
- Remittances. In July remittances decreased by 1.8 year-over-year reaching 298 million USD. 2
- However money transfers still had no contribution to the growth forecast according to our model. 2
- Page 3 3
- LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA SEPTEMBER 2024 3
- Figure 2 Money Inflow 2022-2024 3
- Exchange Rate. Dollar Euro Ruble Turkish lira REER appreciated by 1.9 monthly and depreciated by 10.4 yearly. 3
- -related variables had a negative influence on the real GDP growth projections. 3
- Page 4 4
- LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA SEPTEMBER 2024 4
- Figure 3 Nominal Exchange Rate USDGEL and EURGEL 2022-2024 4
- Consumer Credit. the total volume of commercial banks consumer credit increased by 29 year-over-year. 4
- However according to our model the variables related to consumer credit had a negative impact on the growth forecast. 4
- Overall CPI- related variables have had a slight positive impact on the GDP forecast. 4
