Introduction 7 1.1 Policy context: housing, welfare policy and homelessness in Australia 9 1.2 The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on homelessness and housing in Australia 11 1.3 State and territory initiatives to address homelessness and affordable housing 12 1.4 The changing policy landscape for homelessness and housing in Australia 13 1.5 Understanding the processes driving the geography of hom. [...] The homelessness estimates in ABS TableBuilder (2016 and 2021) allow a direct assessment of the movement of people experiencing homelessness, and other groups, across SA3 boundaries and can provide a critical assessment of the utility of the homeless estimates for policy and planning purposes. [...] 1.4 The changing policy landscape for homelessness and housing in Australia Following a change of government at the federal level, the Commonwealth and the states and territories agreed to a 12-month extension of the bilateral schedules to the NHHA for 2023–24, and provided an additional $67.5 million to address homelessness. [...] 429 The changing geography of homelessness in Australia (2001–21) and its structural drivers 13 Introduction 1.5 Understanding the processes driving the geography of homelessness Our focus in the present study is on the changing geography of homelessness in Australia and its connection to broader structural factors such as housing markets, labour markets, poverty, inequality and the demographic pr. [...] 429 The changing geography of homelessness in Australia (2001–21) and its structural drivers 15 Introduction 1.6 Research approach This report, the latest of three, presents the findings of the analysis of a data series developed to investigate the changing geography of homelessness in Australia and the role that structural factors play in shaping this spatial distribution.
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Table of Contents
- Figure 1: Four broad area types analysed in the descriptive analyses 27
- Figure 2: National shares (%) of homeless persons and population by broad area type: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 36
- Figure 3: Lowest and highest rates of homelessness by nationwide decile, state and territory capital city SA3s, 2021 40
- Figure 4: Lowest and highest rates of homelessness by nationwide decile, Australian SA3s, 2021 41
- Figure 5: Number and rate of homeless by broad area type: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 42
- Figure 6: Percentage change in homelessness rate, state and territory capital city SA3s, 2001–21 44
- Figure 7: Percentage change in homelessness rate, Australian SA3s, 2001–21 45
- Figure 8: Share of national homelessness accounted for by the top 20 and top 33 (10%) SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 53
- Figure 9: Herfindahl index for homelessness shares, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 54
- Figure 10: Sigma convergence using the rate of homelessness per 10,000 persons, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 55
- Figure 11: Sigma convergence using the national share of homelessness, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 56
- Figure 12: Cumulative percentage of persons experiencing homelessness and low-income private renters moving within and across different spatial units, Australia, 2021 60
- Figure 13: Number of social housing dwellings, R1 dwellings and the net supply of affordable PRS dwellings for Q1 households (NSARH) in 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021, Australia 69
- Figure 14: Percentage of SHS clients who are new vs returning, 2016–17 and 2021–22 financial years, Australia 73
- Figure 15: Percentage of SHS clients who are homeless, at risk or not stated at presentation, 2016–17 and 2021–22 financial years, Australia 73
- Figure 16: Estimated number of additional one- to two-bedroom dwellings required to house demand from lone person and couple households presenting to an SHS, capital city SA3s, 2021–22 79
- Figure 17: Estimated number of additional one- to two-bedroom dwellings required to house demand from lone person and couple households presenting to an SHS, Australia SA3s, 2021–22 80
- Figure 18: Q-Q plot to test normality 90
- Table 1: Tenure by household income quintile, Australia 2021 19
- Table 2: Share of national homelessness and national population by state/territory region: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 35
- Table 3: Number and rate of homeless persons by state/territory region: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 38
- Table 4: Count, rate (per 10,000 persons) and national share of ABS homelessness operational groups by year 47
- Table 5: Percentage of ABS homelessness operational groups by state and territory in 2011, 2016 and 2021 49
- Table 6: Selected characteristics of persons experiencing homelessness, number, percentage and rate per 10,000 people, Australia, 2006–21(a) 52
- Table 7: Place of usual residence one year prior to the Census, all persons, persons in low-income PRS dwellings, people experiencing homelessness* and persons in severely crowded dwellings, 2016 and 2021, Australia 58
- Table 8: Share of national homelessness (less operational group 2), SHS support and accommodation capacity by greater capital city and balance of state area for 2016–17 and 2021–22 financial years 65
- Table 9: Mismatch coefficients for the relationship between homelessness and SHS support and accommodation capacity at the national, state/territory and capital city balance of state area 67
- Table 10: Number of people experiencing homelessness, net supply of affordable rental housing and number of social housing dwellings by greater capital city and rest of state area, Australia, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021 70
- Table 11: Contemporaneous correlations between the raw number of people experiencing homelessness, the number of social housing dwellings, R1 PRS dwellings and the net supply of affordable PRS dwellings for Q1 households (NSARH), 2001–21, Australian SA3s 71
- Table 12: Net supply of PRS dwellings affordable to Q1 households, the number of social housing dwellings, the number of SHS clients who are returning and the number of SHS clients who are homeless in 2016–17 and 2021–22 by greater capital city/balance of 74
- Table 13: Contemporaneous Pearson’s correlations between the raw number of returning and raw number of homeless clients, SHS clients and affordable rental supply measures, 2016–17 and 2021–22, Australian SA3s 75
- Table 14: Number of people receiving assistance from an SHS by presenting unit type and greater capital city and balance of state area, 2021–22 77
- Table 15: Model estimates from pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) models, Australia, 2001–21 88
- Table 16: Estimates from spatial Durbin error model with fixed effects (SDEM-FE), national, greater capital city and rest of state areas 93
- Table 17: Direct, indirect and total impact of key variables on homelessness rates 95
- Table A1: ABS Census homelessness estimate variables 110
- Table A2: Key homeless measures derived from the ABS homelessness estimates 111
- Table A3: Descriptive statistics – rate of homelessness per 10,000 persons by operational group and overall total homelessness: Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 112
- Table A4: Descriptive statistics – national share of homelessness for each operational group and for homelessness overall: Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 113
- Table A5: ABS Time Series Profile and TableBuilder variables 114
- Table A6: Descriptive statistics – gender, Indigenous status, language spoken at home (% of population) and total population: Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 115
- Table A7: Descriptive statistics – age groups (% of population): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 116
- Table A8: Descriptive statistics – household type (% of population): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 117
- Table A9: Descriptive statistics – marital status (% of population): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 118
- Table A10: Descriptive statistics – labour force status (% of population): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 119
- Table A11: Descriptive statistics – post-school qualifications (% of population aged 15 years and over): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 120
- Table A12: Descriptive statistics – dwelling structure (% of dwellings): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 121
- Table A13: Descriptive statistics – tenure (% of dwellings): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 122
- Table A14: ABS special request data file variables 123
- Table A15: Household income quintile values (national, all households, gross income) and corresponding affordable private rent category values, 2001–21 124
- Table A16: Descriptive statistics – ABS special request data file, household income quintiles Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 125
- Table A17: Descriptive statistics – ABS special request file, median weekly PRS rents and affordable stock, Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 126
- Table A18: Measures from the Specialist Homelessness Service Collection 127
- Table A19: Descriptive statistics – number, rate (per 10,000) and national share of clients supported, and clients accommodated, in an SHS for the 2016–17 and 2021–22 financial years, Australian SA3s 128
- Table A20: Descriptive statistics – number and share of SHS clients for a range of indicators for the 2016–2017 and 2021–-22 financial years, Australian SA3s. 129
- Table A21: Relationship in household information for ABS homelessness operational groups, Australia, 2021 134
- Table A22: Number of persons with ‘not stated’ as their usual residence one year prior to the Census by greater capital city and balance of state area, 2021 137
- Table A23: Usual residence one year prior to Census, number of all persons, persons in low-income PRS dwellings, homelessness, severe crowding, 2016 and 2021, Australia 138
- Table A24: Selected characteristics of persons experiencing homelessness by state/territory 2011, 2006 and 2021 139
- Table A25: Definitions of variables used in modelling 141
- Table A26: Descriptive statistics or variable used in modelling 142
- Table A27: Complete modelling estimates from ordinary least squares (OLS), random effects (RE) and fixed effects (FE) models 143
- Table A28: Estimates from spatial Durbin error model with fixed effects (SDEM-FE), national, greater capital city and balance of state areas 145
- List of tables 5
- List of figures 7
- Acronyms and abbreviations used in this report 8
- Key terms used in this report 9
- Executive summary 10
- 1. Introduction 16
- 1.1 Policy context: housing, welfare policy and homelessness in Australia 18
- 1.2 The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on homelessness and housing in Australia 20
- 1.3 State and territory initiatives to address homelessness and affordable housing 21
- 1.4 The changing policy landscape for homelessness and housing in Australia 22
- 1.5 Understanding the processes driving the geography of homelessness 23
- 1.6 Research approach 25
- 1.6.1 Defining homelessness 25
- 1.6.2 Spatial units and spatial scales of analyses 26
- 1.6.3 Data sources and key measures 28
- 1.6.4 Panel database 29
- 1.7 The structure of this report 29
- 2. The changing geography of homelessness 2001–21 30
- 2.1 Introduction 32
- 2.2 Changes in the geography of homelessness 2001–21 34
- 2.3 The changing composition of homelessness 46
- 2.4 Is homelessness becoming more or less spatially concentrated over time? 53
- 2.4.1 Concentration ratios 53
- 2.5 What proportion of people experiencing homelessness move across SA3 boundaries and how does this compare to other groups? 56
- 2.6 Policy implications 61
- 3. The geography of support and housing: homelessness, SHS capacity and affordable rental housing 62
- 3.1 Introduction 63
- 3.2 The alignment between specialist homelessness service capacity and homelessness 64
- 3.3 Homelessness and the location of affordable rental housing 68
- 3.4 Do local supplies of affordable private rental housing impact on specialist homelessness services? 72
- 3.5 What is the scale and type of affordable housing response required to address homelessness? 75
- 3.6 Policy implications 81
- 4. The role of structural factors in driving homelessness 82
- 4.1 Introduction 83
- 4.2 Analytical approach 85
- 4.2.1 Modelling homelessness using ordinary least squares fixed effects and random effects 86
- 4.2.2 Panel models: fixed and random effects 89
- 4.2.3. Final models: spatial Durbin error model with fixed effects 91
- 4.3 Policy implications 96
- 5. Policy development options 97
- 5.1 How has the geography of homelessness changed over the 20-year study period? 98
- 5.2 Are specialist homelessness services well placed to respond? 98
- 5.3 What affordable rental housing supply is needed to address homelessness? 99
- 5.4 What structural factors are most important in driving changes in the aggregate rate of homelessness over time? 99
- 5.5 Data improvements and future research 100
- 5.6 Final remarks 101
- References 102
- Appendix 1: Variables and descriptive tables by data source 110
- Appendix 2: Technical notes: ABS homelessness estimates 130
- Appendix 3: Technical notes: Specialist Homelessness Services Collection 135
- Appendix 4: Detailed tables from Chapters 2 and 3 137
- Appendix 5: Detailed modelling results 141
