429 The changing geography of homelessness in Australia (2001–21) and its structural drivers 2 Executive summary Key findings How does the incidence of homelessness vary within and between regions, states and territories over time? Homelessness was and remains a stubborn problem in Australia, with little movement in the national rate of homelessness over time. [...] Both Western Australia and the Northern Territory experienced a decline in the share of homelessness in balance of state areas that may be attributable to previous policies to increase the supply of housing in remote areas. [...] While the number of men and group households is likely related to the measurement of homelessness in the Census, other demographic markers, such as speaking a language other than English and being in a sole-parent household, are suggestive of groups in need of dedicated assistance and intervention. [...] Introduction 1.1 Policy context: housing, welfare policy and homelessness in Australia 1.2 The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on homelessness and housing in Australia 1.3 State and territory initiatives to address homelessness and affordable housing 1.4 The changing policy landscape for homelessness and housing in Australia 1.5 Understanding the processes driving the geography of homelessness 1.6. [...] The geography of support and housing: homelessness, SHS capacity and affordable rental housing 3.1 Introduction 3.2 The alignment between specialist homelessness service capacity and homelessness 3.3 Homelessness and the location of affordable rental housing 3.4 Do local supplies of affordable private rental housing impact on specialist homelessness services? 3.5 What is the scale and type of affo.
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Table of Contents
- Figure 1: Four broad area types analysed in the descriptive analyses 1
- Figure 2: National shares (%) of homeless persons and population by broad area type: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Figure 3: Lowest and highest rates of homelessness by nationwide decile, state and territory capital city SA3s, 2021 1
- Figure 4: Lowest and highest rates of homelessness by nationwide decile, Australian SA3s, 2021 1
- Figure 5: Number and rate of homeless by broad area type: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Figure 6: Percentage change in homelessness rate, state and territory capital city SA3s, 2001–21 1
- Figure 7: Percentage change in homelessness rate, Australian SA3s, 2001–21 1
- Figure 8: Share of national homelessness accounted for by the top 20 and top 33 (10%) SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Figure 9: Herfindahl index for homelessness shares, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Figure 10: Sigma convergence using the rate of homelessness per 10,000 persons, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Figure 11: Sigma convergence using the national share of homelessness, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Figure 12: Cumulative percentage of persons experiencing homelessness and low-income private renters moving within and across different spatial units, Australia, 2021 1
- Figure 13: Number of social housing dwellings, R1 dwellings and the net supply of affordable PRS dwellings for Q1 households (NSARH) in 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021, Australia 1
- Figure 14: Percentage of SHS clients who are new vs returning, 2016–17 and 2021–22 financial years, Australia 1
- Figure 15: Percentage of SHS clients who are homeless, at risk or not stated at presentation, 2016–17 and 2021–22 financial years, Australia 1
- Figure 16: Estimated number of additional one- to two-bedroom dwellings required to house demand from lone person and couple households presenting to an SHS, capital city SA3s, 2021–22 1
- Figure 17: Estimated number of additional one- to two-bedroom dwellings required to house demand from lone person and couple households presenting to an SHS, Australia SA3s, 2021–22 1
- Figure 18: Q-Q plot to test normality 1
- Table 1: Tenure by household income quintile, Australia 2021 1
- Table 2: Share of national homelessness and national population by state/territory region: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table 3: Number and rate of homeless persons by state/territory region: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table 4: Count, rate (per 10,000 persons) and national share of ABS homelessness operational groups by year 1
- Table 5: Percentage of ABS homelessness operational groups by state and territory in 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table 6: Selected characteristics of persons experiencing homelessness, number, percentage and rate per 10,000 people, Australia, 2006–21(a) 1
- Table 7: Place of usual residence one year prior to the Census, all persons, persons in low-income PRS dwellings, people experiencing homelessness* and persons in severely crowded dwellings, 2016 and 2021, Australia 1
- Table 8: Share of national homelessness (less operational group 2), SHS support and accommodation capacity by greater capital city and balance of state area for 2016–17 and 2021–22 financial years 1
- Table 9: Mismatch coefficients for the relationship between homelessness and SHS support and accommodation capacity at the national, state/territory and capital city balance of state area 1
- Table 10: Number of people experiencing homelessness, net supply of affordable rental housing and number of social housing dwellings by greater capital city and rest of state area, Australia, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021 1
- Table 11: Contemporaneous correlations between the raw number of people experiencing homelessness, the number of social housing dwellings, R1 PRS dwellings and the net supply of affordable PRS dwellings for Q1 households (NSARH), 2001–21, Australian SA3s 1
- Table 12: Net supply of PRS dwellings affordable to Q1 households, the number of social housing dwellings, the number of SHS clients who are returning and the number of SHS clients who are homeless in 2016–17 and 2021–22 by greater capital city/balance of 1
- Table 13: Contemporaneous Pearson’s correlations between the raw number of returning and raw number of homeless clients, SHS clients and affordable rental supply measures, 2016–17 and 2021–22, Australian SA3s 1
- Table 14: Number of people receiving assistance from an SHS by presenting unit type and greater capital city and balance of state area, 2021–22 1
- Table 15: Model estimates from pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) models, Australia, 2001–21 1
- Table 16: Estimates from spatial Durbin error model with fixed effects (SDEM-FE), national, greater capital city and rest of state areas 1
- Table 17: Direct, indirect and total impact of key variables on homelessness rates 1
- Table A1: ABS Census homelessness estimate variables 1
- Table A2: Key homeless measures derived from the ABS homelessness estimates 1
- Table A3: Descriptive statistics – rate of homelessness per 10,000 persons by operational group and overall total homelessness: Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A4: Descriptive statistics – national share of homelessness for each operational group and for homelessness overall: Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A5: ABS Time Series Profile and TableBuilder variables 1
- Table A6: Descriptive statistics – gender, Indigenous status, language spoken at home (% of population) and total population: Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A7: Descriptive statistics – age groups (% of population): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A8: Descriptive statistics – household type (% of population): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A9: Descriptive statistics – marital status (% of population): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A10: Descriptive statistics – labour force status (% of population): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A11: Descriptive statistics – post-school qualifications (% of population aged 15 years and over): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A12: Descriptive statistics – dwelling structure (% of dwellings): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A13: Descriptive statistics – tenure (% of dwellings): Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A14: ABS special request data file variables 1
- Table A15: Household income quintile values (national, all households, gross income) and corresponding affordable private rent category values, 2001–21 1
- Table A16: Descriptive statistics – ABS special request data file, household income quintiles Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A17: Descriptive statistics – ABS special request file, median weekly PRS rents and affordable stock, Australian SA3s, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 1
- Table A18: Measures from the Specialist Homelessness Service Collection 1
- Table A19: Descriptive statistics – number, rate (per 10,000) and national share of clients supported, and clients accommodated, in an SHS for the 2016–17 and 2021–22 financial years, Australian SA3s 1
- Table A20: Descriptive statistics – number and share of SHS clients for a range of indicators for the 2016–2017 and 2021–-22 financial years, Australian SA3s. 1
- Table A21: Relationship in household information for ABS homelessness operational groups, Australia, 2021 1
- Table A22: Number of persons with ‘not stated’ as their usual residence one year prior to the Census by greater capital city and balance of state area, 2021 1
- Table A23: Usual residence one year prior to Census, number of all persons, persons in low-income PRS dwellings, homelessness, severe crowding, 2016 and 2021, Australia 1
- Table A24: Selected characteristics of persons experiencing homelessness by state/territory 2011, 2006 and 2021 1
- Table A25: Definitions of variables used in modelling 1
- Table A26: Descriptive statistics or variable used in modelling 1
- Table A27: Complete modelling estimates from ordinary least squares (OLS), random effects (RE) and fixed effects (FE) models 1
- Table A28: Estimates from spatial Durbin error model with fixed effects (SDEM-FE), national, greater capital city and balance of state areas 1
- List of tables 1
- List of figures 1
- Acronyms and abbreviations used in this report 1
- Key terms used in this report 3
- Executive summary 4
- 1. Introduction 1
- 1.1 Policy context: housing, welfare policy and homelessness in Australia 1
- 1.2 The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on homelessness and housing in Australia 1
- 1.3 State and territory initiatives to address homelessness and affordable housing 1
- 1.4 The changing policy landscape for homelessness and housing in Australia 1
- 1.5 Understanding the processes driving the geography of homelessness 1
- 1.6 Research approach 1
- 1.6.1 Defining homelessness 1
- 1.6.2 Spatial units and spatial scales of analyses 1
- 1.6.3 Data sources and key measures 1
- 1.6.4 Panel database 1
- 1.7 The structure of this report 1
- 2. The changing geography of homelessness 2001–21 1
- 2.1 Introduction 1
- 2.2 Changes in the geography of homelessness 2001–21 1
- 2.3 The changing composition of homelessness 1
- 2.4 Is homelessness becoming more or less spatially concentrated over time? 1
- 2.4.1 Concentration ratios 1
- 2.5 What proportion of people experiencing homelessness move across SA3 boundaries and how does this compare to other groups? 1
- 2.6 Policy implications 1
- 3. The geography of support and housing: homelessness, SHS capacity and affordable rental housing 1
- 3.1 Introduction 1
- 3.2 The alignment between specialist homelessness service capacity and homelessness 1
- 3.3 Homelessness and the location of affordable rental housing 1
- 3.4 Do local supplies of affordable private rental housing impact on specialist homelessness services? 1
- 3.5 What is the scale and type of affordable housing response required to address homelessness? 1
- 3.6 Policy implications 1
- 4. The role of structural factors in driving homelessness 1
- 4.1 Introduction 1
- 4.2 Analytical approach 1
- 4.2.1 Modelling homelessness using ordinary least squares fixed effects and random effects 1
- 4.2.2 Panel models: fixed and random effects 1
- 4.2.3. Final models: spatial Durbin error model with fixed effects 1
- 4.3 Policy implications 1
- 5. Policy development options 1
- 5.1 How has the geography of homelessness changed over the 20-year study period? 1
- 5.2 Are specialist homelessness services well placed to respond? 1
- 5.3 What affordable rental housing supply is needed to address homelessness? 1
- 5.4 What structural factors are most important in driving changes in the aggregate rate of homelessness over time? 1
- 5.5 Data improvements and future research 1
- 5.6 Final remarks 1
- References 1
- Appendix 1: Variables and descriptive tables by data source 1
- Appendix 2: Technical notes: ABS homelessness estimates 1
- Appendix 3: Technical notes: Specialist Homelessness Services Collection 1
- Appendix 4: Detailed tables from Chapters 2 and 3 1
- Appendix 5: Detailed modelling results 1
