World Energy Outlook 2024

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Table of Contents

• World Energy Outlook2024 1
• Foreword 3
• Acknowledgements 5
• Table of Contents 11
• Executive Summary 15
• Chapter 1. Overview and key findings 21
• Introduction 23
• 1.1 Scenario overview 24
• 1.1.1 Energy demand 24
• 1.1.2 Total final consumption 25
• 1.1.3 CO2 emissions 28
• 1.2 What do fractured geopolitics mean for the future of energy? 29
• 1.2.1 Fossil fuels 29
• 1.2.2 Clean energy supply chains and critical minerals 32
• 1.3 Are EV sales hitting speed limits? 34
• 1.3.1 Trends in the EV market 37
• 1.3.2 Implications of the transition to EVs for the energy sector 37
• 1.3.3 Key enablers to achieve net zero emissions milestones for EVs 38
• 1.4 How fast might demand for electricity increase? 39
• 1.4.1 Emerging market and developing economies lead demand growth in the STEPS 39
• 1.4.2 Exploring uncertainties in the STEPS 40
• 1.4.3 Clean energy transitions are driving rapid electricity demand growth 42
• 1.5 Is clean power generation growing fast enough? 45
• 1.5.1 Clean power is not yet outrunning global electricity demand growth 45
• 1.5.2 Clean power gets up to speed in most markets by 2030 47
• 1.5.3 Clean power needs to scale up faster to get on track for net zero emissions 48
• 1.6 There is a wave of new LNG coming: where will it go? 50
• 1.7 What will it take to achieve energy access goals by 2030? 55
• 1.7.1 Access to electricity 56
• 1.7.2 Access to clean cooking 58
• 1.7.3 Investment needs to ramp up quickly 59
• 1.8 How to scale up clean energy investment in emerging market and developing economies? 61
• 1.8.1 Breaking down investment requirements 63
• 1.8.2 Challenge of scale 66
• Chapter 2. Setting the scene 67
• 2.1 Context for the World Energy Outlook-2024 69
• 2.1.1 Recent trends in energy demand and CO2 emissions 70
• 2.1.2 Macroeconomic context 73
• 2.1.3 Political and geopolitical uncertainties 75
• 2.2 WEO scenarios 78
• 2.2.1 Policies 79
• Energy and climate policies 80
• Support for energy investment and consumer energy affordability 82
• Industrial policies 83
• Policy uncertainty 85
• 2.2.2 GDP and population 87
• 2.2.3 Prices 90
• Oil 90
• Natural gas 91
• Coal 91
• Critical mineral prices 91
• Carbon prices 92
• Wholesale and retail prices 92
• 2.2.4 Technology costs 93
• Chapter 3. Pathways for the energy mix 97
• 3.1 Introduction 99
• 3.2 Overview 100
• 3.2.1 Energy efficiency 101
• 3.2.2 Renewables 103
• 3.3 Total final consumption 105
• 3.3.1 Transport 109
• 3.3.2 Buildings 113
• Can new global initiatives moderate fast-growing cooling demand? 116
• 3.3.3 Industry 118
• 3.4 Electricity 121
• 3.4.1 Electricity demand 122
• 3.4.2 Electricity supply 125
• 3.4.3 Power sector CO2 emissions 131
• 3.4.4 Power sector investment 132
• 3.5 Fuels 135
• 3.5.1 Oil 137
• Demand 138
• Supply 141
• Refining and trade 142
• 3.5.2 Natural gas 143
• Demand 144
• Supply and trade 146
• 3.5.3 Coal 149
• Demand 149
• Supply and trade 150
• Investment 152
• 3.5.4 Modern bioenergy 152
• Modern solid bioenergy 154
• Liquid biofuels 154
• Biogas and biomethane 154
• 3.6 Key clean energy technologies 155
• 3.6.1 Solar PV 156
• 3.6.2 Wind 157
• 3.6.3 Nuclear 158
• 3.6.4 Electric vehicles 159
• 3.6.5 Heat pumps 160
• 3.6.6 Hydrogen 161
• 3.6.7 Carbon capture, utilisation and storage 163
• Chapter 4. Exploring uncertainties in the 165
• 4.1 Introduction 167
• 4.2 Exploring the uncertainties 168
• Electric vehicles 168
• Renewables deployment 168
• LNG supply 168
• Electricity demand 169
• Uncertainties impact multiple energy sources 169
• 4.3 Sensitivity analyses relative to the STEPS trajectory 170
• 4.4 Uncertainties in oil demand 173
• 4.4.1 Electric vehicle pace of growth 173
• Slower EV growth, higher oil demand 174
• Faster EV growth, lower oil demand 175
• 4.4.2 PHEV in electric mode operation 176
• 4.4.3 Oil-to-gas switching in the Middle East power sector 177
• 4.5 Uncertainties in natural gas demand 178
• 4.5.1 LNG oversupply 179
• 4.5.2 Higher natural gas demand uncertainties 181
• 4.5.3 Lower natural gas demand uncertainties 184
• 4.6 Uncertainties in electricity demand 185
• 4.6.1 Data centres 186
• 4.6.2 Heat waves 189
• 4.6.3 Appliance efficiency in emerging market and developing economies 191
• Low appliance efficiency, high demand case 191
• High appliance efficiency, low demand case 191
• 4.6.4 Implications of changes in electricity demand 192
• Meeting higher electricity demand 192
• Meeting lower electricity demand 193
• Chapter 5. Security, affordability and sustainability 195
• 5.1 Introduction 197
• 5.2 Energy security 198
• 5.2.1 Fuel security 199
• Adequacy of oil and gas supply and investment 199
• Balancing investment in fossil fuels and clean energy 200
• Resilient and reliable fuel supply chains and infrastructure 201
• Co-ordinated infrastructure planning in transitions 205
• 5.2.2 Electricity security 207
• Adequacy 207
• Flexibility 209
• 5.2.3 Security of clean energy supply chains and critical minerals 213
• Clean energy manufacturing 213
• Critical minerals 216
• 5.3 Affordability and people-centred transitions 218
• 5.3.1 Energy bills 218
• 5.3.2 Energy employment 222
• 5.3.3 Energy access 225
• 5.3.4 Behavioural change 228
• 5.4 Sustainability 231
• 5.4.1 Emissions trajectories and temperature outcomes 231
• 5.4.2 Methane abatement 234
• 5.4.3 Air pollution and public health 237
• 5.5 Investment and finance 238
• 5.5.1 Energy investment 238
• Investment in the power sector 240
• 5.5.2 Sources of finance 242
• Chapter 6. Regional insights 245
• Introduction 247
• General notes related to key energy and emissions trends 247
• 6.1 United States 248
• Electricity demand in the United States is returning to strong growth, and renewable generation is set to increase even more qui 250
• 6.2 Latin America and the Caribbean 252
• Expanding role of bioenergy and low-emissions hydrogen 254
• 6.3 European Union 256
• Clean energy transitions offer an opportunity to reduce electricity costs 258
• 6.4 Africa 260
• Upside potential for critical minerals in Africa 262
• 6.5 Middle East 264
• Opportunities to accelerate clean energy deployment in the region 265
• 6.6 Eurasia 268
• Modernising the Caspian natural gas sector 270
• 6.7 China 272
• What is the outlook for electricity demand in China? 274
• 6.8 India 276
• Two/three-wheelers and buses lead the EV revolution in India 277
• 6.9 Japan and Korea 280
• Conventional and innovative technologies advance energy security and clean energy transitions 282
• 6.10 Southeast Asia 284
• How to tackle emissions from coal-fired power plants? 286
• Annexes 289
• Annex A: Tables for scenario projections 291
• General note to the tables 291
• Data sources 292
• Definitional note: Energy supply and transformation tables 292
• Definitional note: Energy demand tables 293
• Definitional note: Fossil fuel production and demand tables 293
• Definitional note: Electricity tables 293
• Definitional note: CO2 emissions tables 294
• Definitional note: Economic and activity indicators 294
• Definitional note: Hydrogen tables 294
• Annex A licencing 295
• Annex B: Design of the scenarios 327
• B.1 Population 328
• B.2 CO2 prices 329
• B.3 Fossil fuel resources 331
• B.4 Electricity generation technology costs 333
• B.5 Other key technology costs 337
• B.6 Policies 339
• Annex C: Definitions 355
• Units 355
• General conversion factors for energy 356
• Currency conversions 356
• Definitions 357
• Regional and country groupings 370
• Country notes 372
• Abbreviations and acronyms 373
• Annex D: References 377
• Executive Summary 377
• Chapter 1: Overview and key findings 377
• Chapter 2: Setting the scene 378
• Chapter 3: Pathways for the energy mix 380
• Chapter 4: Exploring uncertainties in the Outlook 381
• Chapter 5: Security, affordability and sustainability 382
• Chapter 6: Regional insights 385
• Annex B: Design of scenarios 386
• Annex E: Inputs to the Global Energy and Climate Model 389
• General note 389
• IEA databases and publications 389
• External databases and publications 390