With this in mind, negotiators and civil society may find it useful to interpret cost estimates against the NCQG intent to accelerate the goals of the Paris Agreement in relation to temperature, adaptation and the climate-consistency of all financial flows. The quantum is one of several critical elements of the NCQG. [...] First, that countries3: ‘shall set a new collective quantified goal from a floor of USD 100 billion per year’; and second, that the NCQG would be: ‘taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries’; implying that the needs of developing countries can be captured, and can in turn inform the setting of the quantum target – a different approach than the process which led to the $1. [...] 53 4 ODI Working paper Subsequent mandates on the NCQG add more detail, particularly on how the NCQG links to the goals in Article 2 of the Paris Agreement (see Appendix 3 for details).4 What does it mean to ‘tak[e] into account the needs and priorities of developing countries’ in relation to the quantum? What are the links between needs and the quantum? Needs may not all be quantified or quantifi. [...] Although similar in approach to the NDR, Clima Capital Partner’s (2022) objective is to ‘gain better understanding of the financial costs for developing countries to meet climate change mitigation and adaptation commitments under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement’ and supporting the work of the Coalition for an International Platform for Climate Finance (IPCF).7 The report is primarily based on the. [...] While they are not prepared in the context of the NCQG, the reports have value in relation to the new goal’s intent, which is16 ‘contributing to accelerating the achievement of Article 2 of the Paris Agreement’.
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Table of Contents
- Acknowledgements 3
- Display items 5
- Acronyms 6
- Executive summary 7
- 1 Introduction 9
- 2 Conceptual framing 11
- 2.1 Defining developing country needs 11
- 2.2 Approach of the review 12
- 3 Findings from the review 14
- 3.1 Review table 14
- 3.2 Discussion of report methodologies and results 20
- 4 Implications for the NCQG 35
- 4.1 Methodological awareness matters 35
- 4.2 Reports’ estimates and progressing understanding on developing countries’ needs in the context of the quantum 36
- 5 Conclusion 37
- References 38
- Appendix 1 Articulation of needs in NDR 43
- Appendix 2 Songwe, Stern and Bhattacharya’s (2022) ‘Grand Match’ financing strategy 44
- Appendix 3 NCQG in decision texts – excerpts 45
- Box 1 Terminology used in this report 13
- Table 1 Review of reports with cost estimates for developing countries 14
- Table 2 Reports’ context and purpose 21
- Figure 1 Mapping reports’ methodologies, data sources and climate action covered 26
- Figure 2 Report policy and temperature targets 32
- Figure A1 Overview of articulation of needs including costed needs by types of national report submitted to the UNFCCC 43
- Figure A2 Songwe et al. (2022) ‘Grand Match’ financing strategy (billions 2019 US$) 44
- Figure A3 Bhattacharya et al. (2022) ‘big-push’ financing strategy package (billions 2019 US$) 44
