Turkey’s Reconciliation Efforts in the Middle East: Ambitions and Constraints in a Changing Regional Order

Table of Contents

• Turkeys Reconciliation Efforts in the Middle East 1
• Turkeys Reconciliation Efforts in the Middle East 3
• Table of Contents 5
• Turkeys Reconciliation Efforts in the Middle East Ambitions and Constraints in a Changing Regional Order 7
• The global and regional drivers of reconciliation 9
• Drivers of reconciliation 9
• Turkey-specific drivers 10
• Turkeys reconciliation efforts are driven by economic difficulties and 10
• Each reconciliation effort 12
• Détente with Syria 12
• Reconciliation with the region Five different initiatives 12
• The biggest obstacle to reconciliation 13
• Normalisation of relations with Egypt 14
• Egypt and Turkey have achieved full 15
• Mediterranean persist. 15
• Potential realignment with the UAE 16
• Economic and security cooperation 17
• The uncertainty of reconciliation with Saudi Arabia 19
• The Saudis have been much more hesitant than the UAE to improve relations despite sharing a similar 19
• Collapsed reconciliation with Israel 20
• Future of reconciliation following 7 October 22
• Domestic political calculations 22
• Personalisation of the regimes 24
• Structural limits of reconciliation 24
• Reconciliation processes are fragile due to highly personalised regimes 25
• Erdoğans credibility 25
• Elite-based processes 25
• Domestic political constraints 26
• Limitations of economic relations 27
• Exaggerated expectations in terms of foreign policy benefits 27
• Turkeys unrealistic expectations 27
• Conclusions and recommendations 29
• Risk of authoritarian consolidation 30
• Recommendations 31
• Abbreviations 33