SWP Research Paper 2024/RP 15, October 2024, 31 Pages
Authors
- Pages
- 34
- Published in
- Germany
Table of Contents
- Turkeys Reconciliation Efforts in the Middle East 1
- Turkeys Reconciliation Efforts in the Middle East 3
- Table of Contents 5
- Turkeys Reconciliation Efforts in the Middle East Ambitions and Constraints in a Changing Regional Order 7
- The global and regional drivers of reconciliation 9
- Drivers of reconciliation 9
- Turkey-specific drivers 10
- Turkeys reconciliation efforts are driven by economic difficulties and 10
- Each reconciliation effort 12
- Détente with Syria 12
- Reconciliation with the region Five different initiatives 12
- The biggest obstacle to reconciliation 13
- Normalisation of relations with Egypt 14
- Egypt and Turkey have achieved full 15
- Mediterranean persist. 15
- Potential realignment with the UAE 16
- Economic and security cooperation 17
- The uncertainty of reconciliation with Saudi Arabia 19
- The Saudis have been much more hesitant than the UAE to improve relations despite sharing a similar 19
- Collapsed reconciliation with Israel 20
- Future of reconciliation following 7 October 22
- Domestic political calculations 22
- Personalisation of the regimes 24
- Structural limits of reconciliation 24
- Reconciliation processes are fragile due to highly personalised regimes 25
- Erdoğans credibility 25
- Elite-based processes 25
- Domestic political constraints 26
- Limitations of economic relations 27
- Exaggerated expectations in terms of foreign policy benefits 27
- Turkeys unrealistic expectations 27
- Conclusions and recommendations 29
- Risk of authoritarian consolidation 30
- Recommendations 31
- Abbreviations 33