Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis

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Table of Contents

• Front Cover 1
• Contents 7
• Foreword 15
• Acknowledgments 19
• About the Team 21
• Main Messages 25
• Abbreviations 33
• Overview 35
• Progress: Global poverty reduction and improvements in shared prosperity have stalled 35
• Pathways: Eradicating poverty and boosting shared prosperity on a livable planet requires managing trade-offs 53
• Priorities: Doing what matters, where it matters most 64
• Notes 74
• References 75
• 1 Global Poverty Update and Outlook 83
• Summary 83
• Ending poverty remains a major global challenge 84
• Reigniting economic growth and making it more inclusive are key to eradicating poverty 101
• Profile of the global poor: People living in poverty typically live in rural areas and are younger and less educated 108
• Multidimensional poverty broadens the understanding of poverty to guide actions 116
• Annex 1A. Methodology 120
• Annex 1B. Survey-based estimates of the COVID-19 impact confirm previous nowcasts 122
• Annex 1C. New data for India and international price levels have recently become available 124
• Annex 1D. Regional and global poverty estimates, 1990–2024 128
• Notes 132
• References 134
• 2 Shared Prosperity 139
• Summary 139
• Introduction: A new take on shared prosperity 140
• Progress in shared prosperity has stalled since the COVID-19 pandemic 143
• Within-country inequality: The number of economies with high inequality 154
• Effectively addressing inequality requires a comprehensive approach that tackles structural sources of inequality 165
• Annex 2A. Comparing the growth in the mean of the bottom 40 percent versus the Global Prosperity Gap and the Gini index 170
• Annex 2B. The Global Prosperity Gap 172
• Annex 2C. Bottom coding welfare distributions 173
• Annex 2D. Measuring the number of economies with high inequality 175
• Annex 2E. Prosperity Gap estimates by region 179
• Annex 2F. Further results on within-country inequality 180
• Notes 186
• References 190
• 3 Livable Planet 195
• Summary 195
• The concept of a livable planet 196
• The importance of protecting people from extreme weather events 198
• Priorities for advancing on the interlinked goals 217
• Annex 3A. Progress on food and nutrition security 234
• Annex 3B. Measuring climate risks: The percentage of people at high risk from climate-related hazards globally 236
• Annex 3C. Enabling access to safe water and sanitation is crucial for well-being and helps reduce vulnerability 240
• Annex 3D. Healthy ecosystems—zooming in on the importance of forests 242
• Notes 244
• References 246
• 4 Monitoring the Interlinked Goals 257
• Summary 257
• Advancing on these global challenges requires a solid foundation of evidence 257
• A broadened World Bank vision calls for a more holistic and multifaceted approach to measuring well-being and risks 265
• Data underpin the development process and should be prioritized 279
• Annex 4A. Measuring food security 280
• Annex 4B. Data used for climate hazards 283
• Annex 4C. Tracking GHG emissions 284
• Notes 287
• References 290
• Boxes 42
• Box O.1 How is the Prosperity Gap calculated? 42
• Box O.2 Concepts of welfare and differences in measured inequality 47
• Box O.3 How is the number of people at risk from extreme weather hazards calculated? 51
• Box 1.1 Revisiting the poverty line for a changing global population 86
• Box 1.2 Improvements in survey coverage 88
• Box 1.3 New data for India and international price levels 90
• Box 1.4 Progress in societal poverty has stagnated since 2020 102
• Box 1.5 Better labor markets for poverty reduction 105
• Box 2.1 Why the new shared prosperity measures? 140
• Box 2.2 How is the Prosperity Gap calculated? 144
• Box 2.3 Concepts of welfare and differences in measured inequality 155
• Box 3.1 Measuring climate risks: The percentage of people at high risk from climate-related hazards globally 200
• Box 3.2 Climate risks in IDA countries are high because of slow progress in growing incomes and limited improvements in other key dimensions of vulnerability 205
• Box 3.3 Small States face significant economic and climate-related challenges 207
• Box 3.4 How to best promote climate resilience 211
• Box 3.5 The increased fragmentation of aid 233
• Figures 26
• Figure 1 Global extreme poverty reduction has slowed to a near standstill, with 2020-30 set to a lost decade 26
• Figure 2 Progress on boosting shared prosperity around the world has slowed down 26
• Figure 3 Risks from extreme weather events are high and may increase without action 27
• Figure 4 Priorities to advance on the interlinked goals 29
• Figure O.1 Progress has stagnated for the poor 37
• Figure O.2 Projections of poverty until 2050 under different scenarios 38
• Figure O.3 Poverty is still above prepandemic levels in the poorest countries 39
• Figure BO.1.1 The Prosperity Gap captures how far societies are from $25 per person per day 42
• Figure O.4 Stalled progress in Global Prosperity Gap reduction 43
• Figure O.5 Limited gains in the Global Prosperity Gap due to a slowdown of global growth and an increase of global inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic 45
• Figure O.6 Poorer and conflict-affected economies tend to be more unequal 48
• Figure O.7 Income levels in the world have grown between 1990 and 2024, but many people remain vulnerable to falling back into poverty 50
• Figure BO.3.1 Measuring the vulnerability of people at high risk from climate-related hazards 52
• Figure O.8 A large share of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa does not have access to social protection or a financial account 56
• Figure O.9 Projections of emissions and temperatures to 2050 58
• Figure O.10 Additional emissions associated with poverty alleviation increase with the level of ambition 59
• Figure O.11 Lower emissions from poverty alleviation projected with energy efficiency and decarbonization 60
• Figure O.12 Priorities to advance on the interlinked goals 65
• Figure O.13 Increased concentration of extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa and FCS 66
• Figure O.14 Rates of multidimensional poverty and increased risks from extreme weather in IDA countries compared with other countries 68
• Figure O.15 Positive relationship between income levels and GHG emissions 70
• Figure 1.1 Global Poverty Update and Outlook 85
• Figure B1.1.1 Global Poverty Update and Outlook 87
• Figure B1.2.1 Global Poverty Update and Outlook 89
• Figure 1.2 Global Poverty Update and Outlook 91
• Figure 1.3 Global Poverty Update and Outlook 93
• Figure 1.4 Global Poverty Update and Outlook 94
• Figure 1.5 Poverty forecasts through 2030 by region 96
• Figure 1.6 Increased concentration of extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa and fragile and conflict-affected situations 97
• Figure 1.7 Regional disparities in poverty reduction 100
• Figure 1.8 Economic growth has been an important driver of extreme poverty reduction 101
• Figure B1.4.1 Societal poverty line 103
• Figure 1.9 Income levels in the world have grown between 1990 and 2024, but many people remain vulnerable to falling back into poverty 107
• Figure 1.10 Comparison of rural and urban poverty rates, 2022 109
• Figure 1.11 Distribution of subnational extreme poverty rates by income group, 2021 112
• Figure 1.12 Percent of population living in poverty by educational attainment, 2022 114
• Figure 1.13 Age profile of the poor, 2022 115
• Figure 1.14 The poorest countries lag behind in many dimensions of multidimensional poverty in 2021 118
• Figure 1.15 Higher rates of multidimensional poverty than monetary poverty, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa 119
• Figure 1B.1 Changes in poverty rates during the COVID-19 pandemic 123
• Figure 1C.1 Concentration of extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa and fragile and conflict-affected situations under various poverty rates for India in 2022 126
• Figure B2.2.1 The Prosperity Gap captures how far societies are from $25 per person per day 145
• Figure 2.1 Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest Prosperity Gap and contributes the most to the Global Prosperity Gap, followed by South Asia 146
• Figure 2.2 There has been minimal progress in reducing the Prosperity Gap since the COVID-19 pandemic 147
• Figure 2.3 There has been considerable progress in reducing the Global Prosperity Gap since 1990 148
• Figure 2.4 The East Asia and Pacific region has driven the reduction of the Global Prosperity Gap 149
• Figure 2.5 The COVID-19 pandemic abruptly slowed the gains in the Global Prosperity Gap 150
• Figure 2.6 Inequality increases the Prosperity Gap 152
• Figure 2.7 Inequality delays prosperity 154
• Figure 2.8 Poorer and conflict-affected economies tend to be more unequal 158
• Figure 2.9 There is a steady decline in the number of economies with high inequality since 2000 159
• Figure 2.10 The decline in the number of economies with high inequality is not driven by small changes around the threshold 160
• Figure 2.11 More economies moved to a lower-inequality group than to a higher-inequality group, 2000–20 161
• Figure 2.12 The reduction in inequality has been faster for economies with high levels of initial inequality 162
• Figure 2.13 Average within-country inequality has been falling in the past 20 years 163
• Figure 2.14 Most economies experienced a decline in inequality after COVID-19 164
• Figure 2.15 Market versus disposable income 167
• Figure 2.16 Effectively addressing inequality requires a comprehensive approach that tackles all phases of inequality 170
• Figure 2A.1 Old and new measures of shared prosperity track each other well 171
• Figure 2C.1 The rank-rank correlation of the Prosperity Gap between bottom coding at $0.25/day and not bottom coding 175
• Figure 2D.1 Relationship between income and consumption Ginis for countries with both 177
• Figure 2F.1 Whereas the share of economies with high inequality has declined, the share of population living in economies with high inequality has barely changed in the past decade 180
• Figure 3.1 Livable planet dimensions 196
• Figure 3.2 Risks depend on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability 199
• Figure B3.1.1 Counting people at high risk from climate-related hazards 201
• Figure 3.3 South Asia and lower-middle-income countries have the highest exposure rates to extreme weather hazards 202
• Figure 3.4 For similar levels of exposure, risks vary 204
• Figure B3.2.1 Risks from extreme weather in IDA countries are high and reductions in vulnerability been limited 206
• Figure 3.5 Extreme weather events are occurring more frequently since 1970 209
• Figure 3.6 Growth of total GHG emissions has continued but economic activity has become less emissions intensive over the past two decades 210
• Figure 3.7 A large share of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa exposed to extreme weather events does not have access to social protection or a financial account 214
• Figure 3.8 Projections of emissions and temperatures to 2050 show that with current policies, temperatures would increase close to 2°C 216
• Figure 3.9 Energy production mix by income group remains largely based on coal and petroleum 216
• Figure 3.10 Additional emissions associated with poverty alleviation increase with the level of ambition 218
• Figure 3.11 Lower emissions from poverty alleviation projected with energy efficiency and decarbonization 219
• Figure 3.12 Positive relationship between income levels and GHG emissions 225
• Figure 3.13 Projected movement toward Net Zero 2050 by country income groups shows that high-income and upper-middle-income countries must lead the transition 227
• Figure 3.14 Priorities to advance on the interlinked goals 228
• Figure 3.15 Amounts of primary energy and generation of electricity from fossil sources need to decline massively to reach net zero by 2050 231
• Figure 3A.1 The evolution of World Bank Vision and Scorecard indicators for food and nutrition security 236
• Figure 3C.1 Regional and urban-rural differences in access to water 241
• Figure 3D.1 Greenhouse gas emissions and capture from LULUCF, 2022 243
• Figure 4.1 The number of household budget surveys has increased in all regions, 1998-2022 259
• Figure 4.2 Less than one-half of the countries in the world have data available for global monitoring of poverty in 2020 or later 260
• Figure 4.3 Data accessibility scores for countries by income categories 263
• Figure 4.4 Using income and consumption does not change rankings and trends dramatically for countries where both measures exist 267
• Figure 4.5 Comparison of inequality estimates derived from household surveys and other methods 269
• Figure 4.6 Differences in trends of the Gini index between PIP and WID 271
• Figure 4.7 Projections of GDP per capita vary significantly between Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 278
• Maps 48
• Map O.1 Income and consumption inequality among economies 48
• Map O.2 Large populations are exposed to extreme weather events in South Asia and East Asia and Pacific, and vulnerability is high in Sub-Saharan Africa 51
• Map 2.1 The 49 economies with high inequality are concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean 157
• Map 3.1 Large populations are exposed to extreme weather events in South Asia and East Asia and Pacific, and vulnerability is high in Sub-Saharan Africa 203
• Tables 117
• Table 1.1 Deprivations in educational attainment and access to basic infrastructure lift multidimens 117
• Table 1D.1 Percentage of population living in poverty by region 128
• Table 1D.2 Millions of people living in poverty by region 129
• Table 1D.3 Share of global poor (percent) 131
• Table 2.1 An inequality penalty is built into the Prosperity Gap index 151
• Table 2D.1 Statistics of Gini indexes in the Poverty and Inequality Platform, post-2000 176
• Table 2E.1 Prosperity Gap estimates, by region 179
• Table 2F.1 Gini index in latest available survey, by economy 181
• Table 3B.1 Hazard thresholds 237
• Table 3B.2 Extreme vulnerability definitions and sources 238
• Table 4.1 World Bank’s Vision indicators 258