After two and a half years of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, there are now four main possible scenarios for its outcome: ‘Long war’ – An attritional conflict that tests each side’s limits.‘Frozen conflict’ – An armistice that would stabilize the front line where it is.‘Victory for Ukraine’ – A Western policy shift on support that allows Ukraine to force Russia back to at least the demarcation line of 23 February 2022.‘Defeat for Ukraine’ – Ukraine’s acceptance of Russian terms of surrender (change of government, demilitarization, neutrality) and territorial losses. Five variables will determine the nature of any peace arrangement acceptable to Ukraine: how much territory the country will control; the extent of economic damage; the level of population loss; the level of security it can maintain; and the level of required investment in its defence to deter further aggression. The strategic challenge that will confront Ukraine when martial law is lifted is whether it will be able to maintain sufficient unity and resolve to strengthen its institutions and create the level of economic growth needed to recover and defend itself against future attack. The sociological, economic and political consequences of the war will make this task particularly difficult regardless of which scenario materializes.
Authors
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.55317/9781784136260
- ISBN
- 9781784136260
- Pages
- 22
- Published in
- United Kingdom
Table of Contents
- Briefing Paper 1
- Summary 1
- An endless war 2
- Assumptions 3
- Scenarios for the development of the war 3
- Scenario drivers 4
- Determinants of peace 6
- Long war 6
- Frozen conflict 6
- It is widely believed in Ukrainian policy circles that without the decentralization reform that began in 2015 Ukraine would not have been able to withstand the full-scale Russian invasion. 7
- Victory for Ukraine 8
- Defeat for Ukraine 9
- Other factors 9
- Sociological situation 9
- Sociological data show 80 per cent of the population experiencing mental health impacts of the war including sleeping problems anxiety and depression. 10
- Economy 12
- Politics and governance 15
- According to one respected poll in June 2024 Zelenskyys personal rating was 54 per cent down from 71 per cent in December 2023. 16
- Conclusion 18
- About the author 20
- Independent thinking since 1920 22
