Integrating Climate Adaptation and Natural Capital into Macroeconomic Frameworks and Debt Sustainability 5 SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION PAPER This paper lays out practical steps to reform The Fund’s GDP growth forecasts and the DSA the Fund’s key macroeconomic frameworks – do not adequately cover climate and nature its baseline GDP growth forecasts and the DSA. [...] In the Supplement, the Fund for the first time recognises the macroeconomic significance of climate change and investments in adaptation in the context of the DSA and its supporting GDP growth forecasts: Climate change risks – both long-term shifts Investments to increase resilience to climate in climate and sudden, extreme weather change and climate policies more broadly can events induced by cli. [...] In partnership forecasts and macroeconomic with country governments, the Fund should expand its GDP programming to include growth forecasts and macroeconomic programming to include the climate and nature risks and investments: country’s (i) climate and nature risks, (ii) the mitigating impact of climate and nature investments and policies (i.e. [...] 90% of estimated needs) In short, the climate change scenario captures the and largely offsets the impacts of climate change fiscal costs of climate change and the impact of and nature degradation on trend growth; and these fiscal costs on debt sustainability. [...] As discussed in the paper, these GDP include the Bank’s Country Climate and growth forecasts do not factor in the impact of Development Reports (CCDRs) and the Fund’s climate risks on growth, instead assuming the Climate Policy Diagnostics (CPDs), and supporting economy is evolving under stable environmental models such as the Bank’s MANAGE and the conditions.
- Pages
- 27
- Published in
- United Kingdom
Table of Contents
- INTEGRATING CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND NATURAL CAPITAL INTO MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORKS AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY 1
- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 2
- PURPOSE AND CONTEXT 3
- SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION PAPER 5
- DISCUSSION PAPER 6
- TOOL CURRENT TREATMENT OF CLIMATE AND NATURE PROPOSAL 14
- QUANTIFYING CLIMATE AND NATURE RISKS AND INVESTMENTS 17
- APPENDIX A IMPLEMENTING THE PROPOSALS 17
- CONSIDERATIONS FOR REVISION OF SRDSF 18
- BASELINE SCENARIO 19
- DEBT FANCHART MODULE AND NATURAL DISASTER STRESS TEST 19
- LONG-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE MODULE ADAPTATION 20
- FUND GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 21
- APPENDIX B KEY METHODOLOGIES 21
- LOW INCOME COUNTRY DEBT SUSTAINABILITY FRAMEWORK LIC-DSF 22
- LIC-DSF METHODOLOGY 22
- DEBT CARRYING CAPACITY CI CLASSIFICATION 23
- PV OF PPG EXTERNAL DEBT IN PERCENT OF PPG EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICE IN PERCENT OF 23
- SRDSF METHODOLOGY 24
- SOVEREIGN RISK AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY FRAMEWORK SRDSF 25
- CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SRDSF 27
- NATURAL DISASTER TRIGGERED STRESS TEST 27
- LONG-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE MODULES ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION 27
