We scanned over 200 studies from the original pool and filtered the literature across a set of criteria determining the robustness of the methodology used and the decarbonisation ambition of the scenario(s). [...] The choice of the temporal approach allows us to understand the focus of the study and the extent to which it goes into the decarbonisation process. [...] These adjustments address the call in the Paris Agreement for developed countries to take the lead in reducing emissions, the challenges related to stranded assets in emerging economies, and the current geopolitical context in the aftermath of the fossil gas price crisis. [...] If the electricity demand projected in the preceding steps falls below the electricity demand outlined in the downscaled pathways for any given year, the methodology adjusts the electricity demand to align with the downscaled pathway as the minimum bound. [...] November 2023 47 Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world 04 Understanding the benchmarks 48 Developing national-level benchmarks to achieve renewables deployment in line with the Paris Agreement Understanding the nature of the benchmarks Benchmarks for wind and solar capacity can play an important role in showing the way towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
- Pages
- 60
- Published in
- Germany
Table of Contents
- Background 5
- Methodology 8
- 2.1 Guiding principles 9
- 2.2 Integrating multiple lines of evidence 10
- 2.3 Step-by-step method 21
- Results 36
- 3.1 Step-by-step method 37
- 3.2 1.5ºC compatible wind and solar benchmarks 45
- Understanding Benchmarks: Insights and limitations 52
- Future work 56
- References 59
- Figure 1 11
- Informing scope of methodological approach based on guiding principles 11
- Figure 2: 20
- LCOE distribution of PV open-field in Brazil 20
- Figure 3 22
- Overview of step-by-step heuristics for calculating wind and solar generation and capacity benchmarks 22
- Figure 4 26
- Approach to estimate national electricity demand 26
- Figure 5 29
- Approach to define differentiated national fossil fuel phaseout timelines in the power sector 29
- Figure 6 32
- Deriving wind and solar generation by subtracting other non-fossil resources from total clean electricity generation 32
- Figure 7 37
- Results of step 1 – Electricity demand growth indexed to base year 37
- Figure 8 38
- Comparison of estimated total electricity demand from step 1: Deviation of own results vs. literature 38
- Figure 9 40
- Fossil fuel phaseout timelines compared to the literature 40
- Figure 10 42
- Share of electricity generation from clean energy compared to literature 42
- Figure 11 44
- Generation from wind and solar compared to literature 44
- Figure 12 46
- 1.5ºC compatible wind and solar deployment for India (IND), Brazil (BRA) and Indonesia (IDN) 46
- Figure 13 48
- Annual capacity deployment 48
- Figure 14 51
- Sensitivity of results to cost assumptions 51
