The Migrant Smuggling Market on the Central Mediterranean - In Brief smuggling increased significantly in 2023

One of the main objectives of the UNODC Observatory on Smuggling of Migrants is to contribute to addressing the lack of systematic and comparable data on migrant smuggling. [...] So the Observatory is presenting a new analysis with estimates of the incidence of migrant smuggling along the Central Mediterranean Route, considering the proportion who are smuggled among the total number of people departing by sea from North Africa, instead of among people arriving in southern Europe. [...] 1,784 people were reported dead or missing on the Central Mediterranean Route in 2023.4 3 In analyzing the figures, it is important to note that some people make repeated attempts to cross the sea within the same calendar year and therefore the total number of people departing by sea from North Africa may include double counting of individuals. [...] 77 per cent of respondents to a survey of people in Libya who planned to travel on to European countries indicated that they intended to use a smuggler.9 Surveys and interviews with Nigerians and Sudanese in Italy indicated that 88 and 97 per cent, respectively, used smugglers, giving an average of 92.5 per cent.10 The latter is used as the upper limit of the range for people departing from Libya. [...] In 2023, based on the number of people of different nationalities who were the object of smuggling offences, and fees estimated by the Observatory, the market size for smuggling by sea from Libya towards southern Europe during 2023 is estimated to range between $152 and $183 million.12 Combined, the market for migrant smuggling on the Central Mediterranean route during 2023 is estimated to be wort.