Can the Next US President Achieve a Breakthrough in US-China Relations?

The complex US-China relationship is perhaps the most consequential in the world, accounting for the high degree of concern throughout the Asia Pacific about its future. [...] The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s influence and power over all aspects of society, the economy and government have increased considerably, shifting policy and decision making closer to the centre of the party, and away from regular interlocutors engaged by the US government and business community. [...] The US and China have a long history of military-to-military engagement, including established frameworks of strategic and operational dialogues and mechanisms, which can be leveraged to enhance strategic stability and reduce the risk of misperception or miscalculation. [...] The US Congress will also have influence over foreign policy and the president’s choices, particularly the confirmation of cabinet members and senior officials responsible for Asia, oversight, as well as the budget. [...] He takes risks and ignores conventions, such as his effort to engage North Korea’s Kim Jong-un to normalise relations and open it to the outside world, and his campaign to charm Xi Jinping to re-define the US-China trade relationship, both of which ended in failure.