Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to bring a rising economic, social, and humanitarian toll. The attacks on the energy infrastructure have inflicted severe economic damage and losses, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. The war is expected to continue through the coming year, generating expenditure pressures and opening additional financing needs. In addition to the longer war, several other recent developments carry important implications for the IMF-supported program: first, a package of tax measures awaits adoption by Parliament, after which the authorities must continue to build on this effort with further broad-based measures to support fiscal sustainability; second, the successful Eurobond exchange in August is a major achievement toward restoring debt sustainability and securing debt relief amid pressing expenditure needs; and finally, the G7’s assurance to provide US$50 billion of stable, multi-year financing to Ukraine through Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative is critical for meeting the now larger financing needs.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400290534.002
- ISBN
- 9798400290534
- ISSN
- 1934-7685
- Issue
- 314
- Pages
- 168
- Published in
- United States of America
- Series
- Country Report No. 2024/314
- StockNumber
- 1UKREA2024003
- Volume
- 2024
Table of Contents
- Ukraine -2024 - Press Release for the Fifth Review.pdf -1
- FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 1
- 1. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to bring a devastating social and economic toll on Ukraine. Despite the war, macroeconomic and financial stability is being preserved through skillful policymaking by the Ukrainian authorities as well as substantia... 1
- 2. Ukraine’s performance and commitment under the program continues to be strong. All quantitative performance criteria for end-June were met, and those for end-September are expected to have been met. All but one structural benchmark through end-Sept... 1
- 3. Looking ahead, the recovery is expected to slow amid headwinds from the impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and the continuing war, while risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high. Preparedness is necessary to enable appropriate pol... 1
- 4. Ukraine’s financing needs remain large, driven by the continuing war. Timely and predictable external support—on terms consistent with debt sustainability—is essential to closing financing gaps and safeguarding stability. At the same time, decisive... 1
- Further strengthening medium-term budgeting, fiscal risk frameworks and transparency, and public investment management should advance in support of these goals. 1
- 5. The Eurobond exchange in August was an important milestone in the authorities’ strategy to restore debt sustainability. Efforts to conclude the remaining steps in line with the authorities’ strategy and the program’s debt sustainability objectives ... 1
- 6. Continued exchange rate flexibility under the managed exchange rate regime will help strengthen the resilience of the economy to external shocks. The recent uptick in inflation suggests limited room for further easing in the near term, though infla... 1
- 7. The financial sector remains stable. Efforts should continue to strengthen bank resolution and supervision, governance, and contingency planning in view of risks to the outlook. 1
- 8. Continuing the reform momentum in anticorruption and governance, including ensuring the effectiveness of anticorruption institutions and strengthening governance in the energy sector, remain essential to help contain fiscal risks, secure donor conf... 1